AA
Alcoa Corp
$50.49
▲ 3.7%Updated Today 12:11 PM ET
AA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 47/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 61.9% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$12.85B
P/E
12.42x
Forward P/E (est.)
10.65x
ROE
16.3%
Revenue Growth
-0.1%
EPS Growth
16.6%
Profit Margin
8.2%
FCF Yield
-3.9%
Debt / Equity
0.4x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.48x
Dividend Yield
0.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.4%
Rating Score
47/100
Alcoa Corp (AA) is a large-cap company in the Metals & Mining industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $12.85B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.83B in revenue and $1.16B in net profit.
Our model rates AA Neutral (47/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what AA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. AA trades near $50.49, below its 50-day average ($64.79) and 200-day average ($54.92). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 17 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. AA's is $3.30 (~6.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month AA found buyers near $46.01 (support) and sellers near $76.61 (resistance); its 52-week range is $28.11–$84.38. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.5× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
1.4%
Revenue moved from $9.32B in 2016 to $12.83B in 2025, a 3.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 0.1% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
15.2%
Operating Margin
-1.0%
Net Margin
9.0%
ROE
16.3%
Alcoa Corp keeps about 8.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 15.2% gross margin and -1.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 16.3%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$2.44B
Net Debt
$1.09B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.4x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.4x, with a current ratio of 1.5x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $2.44B of total debt against $1.35B of cash.
Operating CF
$1.19B
Free Cash Flow
$567.00M
FCF Margin
4.4%
In the latest year Alcoa Corp produced about $1.19B of operating cash flow and $567.00M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about -3.9% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
P/E
12.42x
P/S
1x
P/B
2.25x
EV / EBITDA
—
AA trades at 12.4x trailing earnings (about 10.7x on estimated forward earnings), 1.0x sales, and 2.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.4% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$29.25
Current price
$50.49
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$567.00M
Growth, years 1–5
-0.1%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where AA sits versus its Materials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 34 Materials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How AA stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Materials sector (47 S&P 500 companies), AA ranks #24 of 47 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (12.4x P/E vs. 18.6x median) with a lower return on equity (16.3% vs. 16.8%) and slower revenue growth (-0.1% vs. 10.1%).
P/E vs sector
12.4x
median 18.6x
ROE vs sector
16.3%
median 16.8%
Growth vs sector
-0.1%
median 10.1%
Sector rank
#24
of 47 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 47 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $50.49 today · expected CAGR -7% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.22B | $13.61B | $14.02B | $14.44B | $14.87B |
| Net income | $1.19B | $1.23B | $1.26B | $1.30B | $1.34B |
| EPS | $4.51 | $4.64 | $4.78 | $4.93 | $5.07 |
| Share price (low) | $31.55 | $32.50 | $33.47 | $34.48 | $35.51 |
| Share price (high) | $54.09 | $55.71 | $57.38 | $59.10 | $60.88 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -38% / 7% | -20% / 5% | -13% / 4% | -9% / 4% | -7% / 4% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for AA:
- Strong return on equity (16.3%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.4x) lowers risk.
The case against AA:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-0.1%), limiting the upside engine.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-0.1%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Alcoa Corp is a large-cap materials business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 12.4x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (47/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
AA — frequently asked questions
Is AA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Alcoa Corp Neutral (47/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is AA's rating on The Stocks School?
Alcoa Corp currently scores 47/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does AA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Alcoa Corp's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for AA calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this AA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell AA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.