CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill
$33.10
▼ 1.8%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
CMG at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 55/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 37.3% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$45.40B
P/E
29.97x
Forward P/E (est.)
31.25x
ROE
48.4%
Revenue Growth
5.7%
EPS Growth
-4.1%
Profit Margin
12.0%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
0x
ROIC
64.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.92x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.6%
Rating Score
55/100
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is a large-cap company in the Restaurants industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $45.40B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $11.93B in revenue and $1.54B in net profit.
Our model rates CMG Neutral (55/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
16.3% average over the last 3 years
±5.3 pts around 9.8% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
64.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what CMG's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. CMG trades near $33.10, around its 50-day average ($32.27) and 200-day average ($35.51). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 70 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. CMG's is $1.07 (~3.2% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month CMG found buyers near $28.04 (support) and sellers near $35.47 (resistance); its 52-week range is $28.04–$58.42. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
12.1%
Revenue moved from $3.90B in 2016 to $11.93B in 2025, a 13.2% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 5.7% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
30.0%
Operating Margin
16.2%
Net Margin
12.9%
ROE
48.4%
Chipotle Mexican Grill keeps about 12.0% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 30.0% gross margin and 16.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 48.4% and return on invested capital about 64.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$0.00
Net Debt
-$246.64M
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.13x
Debt / Equity
0x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, with a current ratio of 0.9x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $0.00 of total debt against $246.64M of cash.
Operating CF
$2.11B
Free Cash Flow
$1.45B
FCF Margin
12.1%
In the latest year Chipotle Mexican Grill produced about $2.11B of operating cash flow and $1.45B of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
P/E
29.97x
P/S
3.6x
P/B
17.54x
EV / EBITDA
—
CMG trades at 30.0x trailing earnings (about 31.3x on estimated forward earnings), 3.6x sales, and 17.5x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.6% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$21.29
Current price
$33.10
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.45B
Growth, years 1–5
5.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where CMG sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How CMG stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (158 S&P 500 companies), CMG ranks #32 of 158 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (30x P/E vs. 25.8x median) with a higher return on equity (48.4% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (5.7% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
30x
median 25.8x
ROE vs sector
48.4%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
5.7%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#32
of 158 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 158 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $33.10 today · expected CAGR -4% – 7%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.64B | $13.40B | $14.20B | $15.06B | $15.96B |
| Net income | $1.64B | $1.74B | $1.85B | $1.96B | $2.07B |
| EPS | $1.20 | $1.27 | $1.35 | $1.43 | $1.51 |
| Share price (low) | $21.57 | $22.86 | $24.23 | $25.69 | $27.23 |
| Share price (high) | $35.95 | $38.10 | $40.39 | $42.81 | $45.38 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -35% / 9% | -17% / 7% | -10% / 7% | -6% / 7% | -4% / 7% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for CMG:
- Strong return on equity (48.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
The case against CMG:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Chipotle Mexican Grill is a large-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 30.0x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (55/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 41 Wall Street analysts covering CMG recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
CMG's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
CMG — frequently asked questions
Is CMG a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Chipotle Mexican Grill Neutral (55/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is CMG's rating on The Stocks School?
Chipotle Mexican Grill currently scores 55/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does CMG's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Chipotle Mexican Grill's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for CMG calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this CMG analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell CMG. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.