GFL
GFL Environmental Inc
$41.37
▼ 0.4%Updated Today 11:13 AM ET
GFL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 21/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 16.7% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$15.08B
P/E
91.94x
Forward P/E (est.)
131.34x
ROE
2.8%
Revenue Growth
-12.1%
EPS Growth
-92.9%
Profit Margin
3.1%
FCF Yield
9.3%
Debt / Equity
1.09x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.58x
Dividend Yield
0.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
8.1%
Rating Score
21/100
GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) is a large-cap company in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $15.08B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $4.83B in revenue and $2.80B in net profit.
Our model rates GFL Weak (21/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what GFL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. GFL trades near $41.37, around its 50-day average ($36.73) and 200-day average ($41.96). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 75 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. GFL's is $1.27 (~3.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month GFL found buyers near $34.39 (support) and sellers near $40.52 (resistance); its 52-week range is $33.33–$51.51. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
6.5%
Revenue moved from $2.44B in 2019 to $4.83B in 2025, a 12.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 12.1% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
20.6%
Operating Margin
6.3%
Net Margin
58.0%
ROE
2.8%
GFL Environmental Inc keeps about 3.1% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 20.6% gross margin and 6.3% operating margin. Return on equity is 2.8%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$5.42B
Net Debt
$5.36B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
1.09x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.1x, with a current ratio of 0.6x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $5.42B of total debt against $62.49M of cash.
Operating CF
$960.68M
Free Cash Flow
$127.46M
FCF Margin
2.6%
In the latest year GFL Environmental Inc produced about $960.68M of operating cash flow and $127.46M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 9.3% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.1%
Total paid (latest FY)
$22.70M
History on record
6 years
dividend uses 18% of free cash flow
1% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 5 years in a row
no cuts in the last 6 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
91.94x
P/S
2.9x
P/B
2.94x
EV / EBITDA
—
GFL trades at 91.9x trailing earnings (about 131.3x on estimated forward earnings), 2.9x sales, and 2.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 8.1% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$41.37
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$127.46M
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where GFL sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How GFL stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), GFL ranks #138 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (91.9x P/E vs. 31.4x median) with a lower return on equity (2.8% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (-12.1% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
91.9x
median 31.4x
ROE vs sector
2.8%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
-12.1%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#138
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $41.37 today · expected CAGR 59% – 76%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.97B | $5.12B | $5.28B | $5.44B | $5.60B |
| Net income | $2.49B | $2.56B | $2.64B | $2.72B | $2.80B |
| EPS | $6.82 | $7.03 | $7.24 | $7.46 | $7.68 |
| Share price (low) | $375.31 | $386.57 | $398.16 | $410.11 | $422.41 |
| Share price (high) | $627.79 | $646.62 | $666.02 | $686.00 | $706.58 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 807% / 1417% | 206% / 295% | 113% / 153% | 77% / 102% | 59% / 76% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for GFL:
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~9.3%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Industrials, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against GFL:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-12.1%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (3.1%) leave little room for error.
- A rich 91.9x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (21/100).
Valuation risk — at 91.9x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.1x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-12.1%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.1%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: GFL Environmental Inc is a large-cap industrials business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 91.9x earnings, which our model scores Weak (21/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 18 Wall Street analysts covering GFL recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
GFL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
GFL — frequently asked questions
Is GFL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates GFL Environmental Inc Weak (21/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is GFL's rating on The Stocks School?
GFL Environmental Inc currently scores 21/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does GFL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from GFL Environmental Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for GFL calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this GFL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell GFL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.