MRNA
Moderna
$57.77
▲ 7.3%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
MRNA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 17/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 151.8% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$31.65B
P/E
—
Forward P/E (est.)
—
ROE
-36.7%
Revenue Growth
-30.0%
EPS Growth
—
Profit Margin
-143.6%
FCF Yield
-13.6%
Debt / Equity
0.07x
ROIC
-30.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
2.41x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
17/100
Moderna (MRNA) is a large-cap company in the Biotechnology industry, part of the Health Care sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $31.65B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $1.94B in revenue and posted a net loss of $2.82B.
Our model rates MRNA Weak (17/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (6 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
-114.0% average over the last 3 years
±332.1 pts around -188.0% across 6 years
grew in 2 of the last 5 year-over-year periods
positive in 2 of 6 years
-30.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MRNA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MRNA trades near $57.77, above its 50-day average ($52.65) and 200-day average ($41.12). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 86 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MRNA's is $5.54 (~9.6% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month MRNA found buyers near $45.40 (support) and sellers near $81.40 (resistance); its 52-week range is $22.28–$81.40. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.5× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
-43.0%
Revenue moved from $60.21M in 2019 to $1.94B in 2025, a 100.4% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 30.0% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
35.0%
Operating Margin
-158.1%
Net Margin
-145.2%
ROE
-36.7%
Moderna keeps about -143.6% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 35.0% gross margin and -158.1% operating margin. Return on equity is -36.7% and return on invested capital about -30.0%. The company is currently unprofitable on a net basis.
Total Debt
$590.00M
Net Debt
-$1.32B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.07x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.1x, with a current ratio of 2.4x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $590.00M of total debt against $1.91B of cash.
Operating CF
-$1.87B
Free Cash Flow
-$2.06B
FCF Margin
-106.2%
In the latest year Moderna produced about -$1.87B of operating cash flow but negative free cash flow as it invested heavily. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about -13.6% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
P/E
—
P/S
11.31x
P/B
1.39x
EV / EBITDA
—
MRNA trades at n/a trailing earnings, 11.3x sales, and 1.4x book value. With no positive trailing earnings, value it on sales, cash flow, or growth rather than P/E.
Where MRNA sits versus its Health Care sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How MRNA stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Health Care sector (324 S&P 500 companies), MRNA ranks #83 of 324 by our overall rating.
P/E vs sector
—
median 27.3x
ROE vs sector
-36.7%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
-30.0%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#83
of 324 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 324 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $57.77 today · expected CAGR -52% – -47%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.00B | $2.06B | $2.12B | $2.19B | $2.25B |
| Net income | $60.07M | $61.87M | $63.73M | $65.64M | $67.61M |
| EPS | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.12 | $0.12 |
| Share price (low) | $1.32 | $1.36 | $1.40 | $1.44 | $1.48 |
| Share price (high) | $2.19 | $2.26 | $2.33 | $2.40 | $2.47 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -98% / -96% | -85% / -80% | -71% / -66% | -60% / -55% | -52% / -47% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for MRNA:
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.1x) lowers risk.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Health Care, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against MRNA:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-30.0%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (-143.6%) leave little room for error.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (17/100).
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-30.0%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (-143.6%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Moderna is a large-cap health care business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at n/a earnings, which our model scores Weak (17/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering MRNA recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
MRNA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
MRNA — frequently asked questions
Is MRNA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Moderna Weak (17/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is MRNA's rating on The Stocks School?
Moderna currently scores 17/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does MRNA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Moderna's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for MRNA calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this MRNA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MRNA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.