WCN
Waste Connections, Inc
$169.34
▲ 0.3%Updated Today 11:13 AM ET
WCN at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 48/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 6.8% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$40.74B
P/E
40.84x
Forward P/E (est.)
29.17x
ROE
12.9%
Revenue Growth
5.9%
EPS Growth
68.7%
Profit Margin
11.0%
FCF Yield
5.7%
Debt / Equity
1.07x
ROIC
10.0%
Interest Coverage
6.23x
Current Ratio
0.66x
Dividend Yield
0.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.8%
Rating Score
48/100
Waste Connections, Inc (WCN) is a large-cap company in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $40.74B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $9.47B in revenue and $1.08B in net profit.
Our model rates WCN Neutral (48/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
15.1% average over the last 3 years
±3.0 pts around 14.7% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
10.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what WCN's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. WCN trades near $169.34, above its 50-day average ($157.88) and 200-day average ($166.39). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 71 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. WCN's is $4.05 (~2.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month WCN found buyers near $152.43 (support) and sellers near $170.67 (resistance); its 52-week range is $146.89–$191.91. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.2× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
11.4%
Revenue moved from $3.38B in 2016 to $9.47B in 2025, a 12.1% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 5.9% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
42.5%
Operating Margin
18.1%
Net Margin
11.4%
ROE
12.9%
Waste Connections, Inc keeps about 11.0% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 42.5% gross margin and 18.1% operating margin. Return on equity is 12.9% and return on invested capital about 10.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$4.74B
Net Debt
$4.65B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.72x
Debt / Equity
1.07x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.1x, and operating profit covers interest about 6.2x, with a current ratio of 0.7x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $4.74B of total debt against $98.18M of cash.
Operating CF
$2.41B
Free Cash Flow
$1.23B
FCF Margin
13.0%
In the latest year Waste Connections, Inc produced about $2.41B of operating cash flow and $1.23B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 5.7% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.8%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.29
Total paid (latest FY)
$333.81M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 27% of free cash flow
31% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
40.84x
P/S
4.55x
P/B
5.34x
EV / EBITDA
15.43x
WCN trades at 40.8x trailing earnings (about 29.2x on estimated forward earnings), 4.5x sales, and 5.3x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.8% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$93.58
Current price
$169.34
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.23B
Growth, years 1–5
5.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where WCN sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How WCN stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), WCN ranks #83 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (40.8x P/E vs. 31.2x median) with a lower return on equity (12.9% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (5.9% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
40.8x
median 31.2x
ROE vs sector
12.9%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
5.9%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#83
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $169.34 today · expected CAGR -3% – 7%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.03B | $10.64B | $11.28B | $11.95B | $12.67B |
| Net income | $1.10B | $1.17B | $1.24B | $1.31B | $1.39B |
| EPS | $4.59 | $4.86 | $5.15 | $5.46 | $5.79 |
| Share price (low) | $114.69 | $121.58 | $128.87 | $136.60 | $144.80 |
| Share price (high) | $188.10 | $199.39 | $211.35 | $224.03 | $237.47 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -32% / 11% | -15% / 9% | -9% / 8% | -5% / 7% | -3% / 7% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for WCN:
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~5.7%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Industrials, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against WCN:
- A rich 40.8x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Valuation risk — at 40.8x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.1x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Waste Connections, Inc is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 40.8x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (48/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 20 Wall Street analysts covering WCN recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
WCN's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
WCN — frequently asked questions
Is WCN a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Waste Connections, Inc Neutral (48/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is WCN's rating on The Stocks School?
Waste Connections, Inc currently scores 48/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does WCN's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Waste Connections, Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for WCN calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this WCN analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell WCN. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.