AVB
AvalonBay Communities
$188.36
▲ 1.0%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
AVB at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 61/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 14.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$27.52B
P/E
23.4x
Forward P/E (est.)
23.49x
ROE
9.7%
Revenue Growth
4.0%
EPS Growth
-0.4%
Profit Margin
37.2%
FCF Yield
6.7%
Debt / Equity
0.81x
ROIC
8.0%
Interest Coverage
7.8x
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
3.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.7%
Rating Score
61/100
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is a large-cap company in the Multi-Family Residential REITs industry, part of the Real Estate sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $27.52B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $7.04M in revenue.
Our model rates AVB Favorable (61/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
26288.0% average over the last 3 years
±7636.2 pts around 32159.3% across 10 years
grew in 3 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
8.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what AVB's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. AVB trades near $188.36, above its 50-day average ($184.30) and 200-day average ($179.94). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 63 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. AVB's is $3.96 (~2.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month AVB found buyers near $176.13 (support) and sellers near $193.99 (resistance); its 52-week range is $160.10–$205.00. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.5× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
22.9%
Revenue moved from $5.60M in 2016 to $7.04M in 2025, a 2.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (4.0%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
62.8%
Operating Margin
28698.5%
Net Margin
37.2%
ROE
9.7%
AvalonBay Communities keeps about 37.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 62.8% gross margin and 28698.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 9.7% and return on invested capital about 8.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$9.36B
Net Debt
$9.24B
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.57x
Debt / Equity
0.81x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.8x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.8x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $9.36B of total debt against $121.23M of cash.
Operating CF
$1.67B
Free Cash Flow
$1.41B
FCF Margin
20013.3%
In the latest year AvalonBay Communities produced about $1.67B of operating cash flow and $1.41B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.7% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
3.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$7.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$839.65M
History on record
4 years
dividend uses 60% of free cash flow
total dividends increased 3 years in a row
no cuts in the last 4 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
23.4x
P/S
8.61x
P/B
2.3x
EV / EBITDA
—
AVB trades at 23.4x trailing earnings (about 23.5x on estimated forward earnings), 8.6x sales, and 2.3x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$174.14
Current price
$188.36
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.41B
Growth, years 1–5
4.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where AVB sits versus its Real Estate sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 33 Real Estate companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How AVB stacks up against its Real Estate peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Real Estate sector (41 S&P 500 companies), AVB ranks #7 of 41 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (23.4x P/E vs. 32.4x median) with a higher return on equity (9.7% vs. 8.0%) and slower revenue growth (4.0% vs. 5.3%).
P/E vs sector
23.4x
median 32.4x
ROE vs sector
9.7%
median 8.0%
Growth vs sector
4.0%
median 5.3%
Sector rank
#7
of 41 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Real Estate companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 41 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $188.36 today · expected CAGR -72% – -69%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.32M | $7.62M | $7.92M | $8.24M | $8.57M |
| Net income | $2.71M | $2.82M | $2.93M | $3.05M | $3.17M |
| EPS | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 |
| Share price (low) | $0.26 | $0.27 | $0.28 | $0.29 | $0.30 |
| Share price (high) | $0.43 | $0.44 | $0.46 | $0.48 | $0.50 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -100% / -100% | -96% / -95% | -89% / -87% | -80% / -78% | -72% / -69% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for AVB:
- High net margins (37.2%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.7%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 3.9% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (61/100).
The case against AVB:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: AvalonBay Communities is a large-cap real estate business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 23.4x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (61/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 24 Wall Street analysts covering AVB recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-4 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
AVB's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
AVB — frequently asked questions
Is AVB a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates AvalonBay Communities Favorable (61/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is AVB's rating on The Stocks School?
AvalonBay Communities currently scores 61/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does AVB's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from AvalonBay Communities's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for AVB calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this AVB analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell AVB. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.