EXE
Expand Energy
$92.99
▲ 1.1%Updated Today 11:30 AM ET
EXE at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 68/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 28.0% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$21.70B
P/E
6.74x
Forward P/E (est.)
9.63x
ROE
17.4%
Revenue Growth
170.6%
EPS Growth
-39.3%
Profit Margin
22.4%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
0.27x
ROIC
8.0%
Interest Coverage
23.76x
Current Ratio
1.11x
Dividend Yield
2.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
0.5%
Rating Score
68/100
Expand Energy (EXE) is a large-cap company in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, part of the Energy sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $21.70B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.12B in revenue and $1.82B in net profit.
Our model rates EXE Favorable (68/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
12.5% average over the last 3 years
±56.9 pts around -13.4% across 10 years
grew in 4 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 10 years
8.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what EXE's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. EXE trades near $92.99, below its 50-day average ($93.65) and 200-day average ($103.99). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 63 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. EXE's is $2.21 (~2.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month EXE found buyers near $86.37 (support) and sellers near $94.33 (resistance); its 52-week range is $86.37–$126.62. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
21.6%
Revenue moved from $7.87B in 2016 to $12.12B in 2025, a 4.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 170.6% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
76.5%
Operating Margin
20.4%
Net Margin
15.0%
ROE
17.4%
Expand Energy keeps about 22.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 76.5% gross margin and 20.4% operating margin. Return on equity is 17.4% and return on invested capital about 8.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$5.01B
Net Debt
$2.79B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.13x
Debt / Equity
0.27x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.3x, and operating profit covers interest about 23.8x, with a current ratio of 1.1x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $5.01B of total debt against $2.22B of cash.
Operating CF
$4.58B
Free Cash Flow
$1.84B
FCF Margin
15.2%
In the latest year Expand Energy produced about $4.58B of operating cash flow and $1.84B of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
2.6%
Total paid (latest FY)
$765.00M
History on record
5 years
dividend uses 42% of free cash flow
42% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 1 year in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 5 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
6.74x
P/S
1.73x
P/B
1.46x
EV / EBITDA
—
EXE trades at 6.7x trailing earnings (about 9.6x on estimated forward earnings), 1.7x sales, and 1.5x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 0.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$318.33
Current price
$92.99
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.84B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where EXE sits versus its Energy sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 47 Energy companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How EXE stacks up against its Energy peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Energy sector (57 S&P 500 companies), EXE ranks #7 of 57 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (6.7x P/E vs. 19.2x median) with a higher return on equity (17.4% vs. 13.3%) and faster revenue growth (170.6% vs. 0.7%).
P/E vs sector
6.7x
median 19.2x
ROE vs sector
17.4%
median 13.3%
Growth vs sector
170.6%
median 0.7%
Sector rank
#7
of 57 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Energy companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 57 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $92.99 today · expected CAGR 22% – 34%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.58B | $25.49B | $36.96B | $53.59B | $77.71B |
| Net income | $2.64B | $3.82B | $5.54B | $8.04B | $11.66B |
| EPS | $11.30 | $16.38 | $23.76 | $34.45 | $49.95 |
| Share price (low) | $56.49 | $81.91 | $118.78 | $172.23 | $249.73 |
| Share price (high) | $90.39 | $131.06 | $190.04 | $275.56 | $399.56 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / -3% | -6% / 19% | 9% / 27% | 17% / 31% | 22% / 34% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for EXE:
- Revenue is growing 170.6% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (22.4%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (17.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.3x) lowers risk.
- Pays a 2.6% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (68/100).
The case against EXE:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Expand Energy is a large-cap energy business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 6.7x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (68/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering EXE recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-4 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
EXE's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
EXE — frequently asked questions
Is EXE a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Expand Energy Favorable (68/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is EXE's rating on The Stocks School?
Expand Energy currently scores 68/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does EXE's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Expand Energy's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for EXE calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this EXE analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell EXE. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.