NRG
NRG Energy
$121.90
▲ 2.4%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
NRG at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 15/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 11.5% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$28.84B
P/E
108.83x
Forward P/E (est.)
155.48x
ROE
8.8%
Revenue Growth
10.6%
EPS Growth
-81.7%
Profit Margin
0.7%
FCF Yield
-2.1%
Debt / Equity
9.78x
ROIC
6.0%
Interest Coverage
2.77x
Current Ratio
0.84x
Dividend Yield
1.5%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.2%
Rating Score
15/100
NRG Energy (NRG) is a large-cap company in the Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders industry, part of the Utilities sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $28.84B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $30.71B in revenue and $864.00M in net profit.
Our model rates NRG Weak (15/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
5.3% average over the last 3 years
±6.4 pts around 6.3% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 8 of 10 years
6.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NRG's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NRG trades near $121.90, below its 50-day average ($139.20) and 200-day average ($156.06). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 66 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NRG's is $5.91 (~4.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month NRG found buyers near $120.11 (support) and sellers near $150.97 (resistance); its 52-week range is $120.11–$189.96. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
3.3%
Revenue moved from $8.91B in 2016 to $30.71B in 2025, a 14.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 10.6% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
19.1%
Operating Margin
6.0%
Net Margin
2.8%
ROE
8.8%
NRG Energy keeps about 0.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 19.1% gross margin and 6.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 8.8% and return on invested capital about 6.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$23.18B
Net Debt
$23.00B
Net Debt / EBITDA
12.47x
Debt / Equity
9.78x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 9.8x, and operating profit covers interest about 2.8x, with a current ratio of 0.8x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $23.18B of total debt against $178.00M of cash.
Operating CF
$1.91B
Free Cash Flow
$766.00M
FCF Margin
2.5%
In the latest year NRG Energy produced about $1.91B of operating cash flow and $766.00M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about -2.1% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
1.5%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.76
Total paid (latest FY)
$411.00M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 54% of free cash flow
48% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 6 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
108.83x
P/S
0.92x
P/B
16.75x
EV / EBITDA
—
NRG trades at 108.8x trailing earnings (about 155.5x on estimated forward earnings), 0.9x sales, and 16.8x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.2% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$90.11
Current price
$121.90
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$766.00M
Growth, years 1–5
10.6%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where NRG sits versus its Utilities sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 38 Utilities companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How NRG stacks up against its Utilities peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Utilities sector (47 S&P 500 companies), NRG ranks #38 of 47 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (108.8x P/E vs. 21.3x median) with a lower return on equity (8.8% vs. 10.3%) and faster revenue growth (10.6% vs. 8.8%).
P/E vs sector
108.8x
median 21.3x
ROE vs sector
8.8%
median 10.3%
Growth vs sector
10.6%
median 8.8%
Sector rank
#38
of 47 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Utilities companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 47 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $121.90 today · expected CAGR 28% – 42%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.09B | $37.84B | $42.00B | $46.62B | $51.75B |
| Net income | $1.02B | $1.14B | $1.26B | $1.40B | $1.55B |
| EPS | $4.32 | $4.80 | $5.33 | $5.91 | $6.56 |
| Share price (low) | $280.97 | $311.88 | $346.18 | $384.26 | $426.53 |
| Share price (high) | $471.17 | $522.99 | $580.52 | $644.38 | $715.26 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 130% / 287% | 60% / 107% | 42% / 68% | 33% / 52% | 28% / 42% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for NRG:
- Revenue is growing 10.6% a year, a sign of real demand.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Utilities, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against NRG:
- Thin net margins (0.7%) leave little room for error.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 9.8x) adds financial risk.
- Interest coverage is thin (2.8x), so debt costs bite.
- A rich 108.8x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (15/100).
Valuation risk — at 108.8x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 9.8x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Margin risk — thin profitability (0.7%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: NRG Energy is a large-cap utilities business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 108.8x earnings, which our model scores Weak (15/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 22 Wall Street analysts covering NRG recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
NRG's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
NRG — frequently asked questions
Is NRG a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates NRG Energy Weak (15/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NRG's rating on The Stocks School?
NRG Energy currently scores 15/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NRG's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from NRG Energy's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NRG calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NRG analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NRG. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.