ODFL
Old Dominion
$215.30
▲ 1.8%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
ODFL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 46/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 41.7% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$45.26B
P/E
44.44x
Forward P/E (est.)
49.57x
ROE
23.4%
Revenue Growth
-4.8%
EPS Growth
-10.3%
Profit Margin
18.5%
FCF Yield
6.1%
Debt / Equity
0.01x
ROIC
24.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.57x
Dividend Yield
0.5%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.7%
Rating Score
46/100
Old Dominion (ODFL) is a large-cap company in the Cargo Ground Transportation industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $45.26B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $5.50B in revenue and $1.02B in net profit.
Our model rates ODFL Neutral (46/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
26.4% average over the last 3 years
±4.4 pts around 23.1% across 10 years
grew in 5 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
24.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ODFL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ODFL trades near $215.30, around its 50-day average ($217.92) and 200-day average ($179.63). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 17 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ODFL's is $7.55 (~3.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month ODFL found buyers near $212.45 (support) and sellers near $252.03 (resistance); its 52-week range is $126.01–$252.03. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.6× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
1.1%
Revenue moved from $2.99B in 2016 to $5.50B in 2025, a 7.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 4.8% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
89.6%
Operating Margin
24.8%
Net Margin
18.6%
ROE
23.4%
Old Dominion keeps about 18.5% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 89.6% gross margin and 24.8% operating margin. Return on equity is 23.4% and return on invested capital about 24.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$45.00M
Net Debt
-$243.08M
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.18x
Debt / Equity
0.01x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, with a current ratio of 1.6x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $45.00M of total debt against $288.08M of cash.
Operating CF
$1.37B
Free Cash Flow
$955.10M
FCF Margin
17.4%
In the latest year Old Dominion produced about $1.37B of operating cash flow and $955.10M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.1% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.5%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.12
Total paid (latest FY)
$235.64M
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 25% of free cash flow
23% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 8 years in a row
no cuts in the last 9 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
44.44x
P/S
8.76x
P/B
7.07x
EV / EBITDA
—
ODFL trades at 44.4x trailing earnings (about 49.6x on estimated forward earnings), 8.8x sales, and 7.1x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$47.76
Current price
$215.30
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$955.10M
Growth, years 1–5
-4.8%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where ODFL sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How ODFL stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), ODFL ranks #90 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (44.4x P/E vs. 32x median) with a higher return on equity (23.4% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (-4.8% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
44.4x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
23.4%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
-4.8%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#90
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $215.30 today · expected CAGR -7% – 3%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.66B | $5.83B | $6.01B | $6.19B | $6.37B |
| Net income | $1.08B | $1.11B | $1.14B | $1.18B | $1.21B |
| EPS | $5.12 | $5.27 | $5.43 | $5.59 | $5.76 |
| Share price (low) | $133.02 | $137.01 | $141.13 | $145.36 | $149.72 |
| Share price (high) | $225.12 | $231.87 | $238.83 | $245.99 | $253.37 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -38% / 5% | -20% / 4% | -13% / 4% | -9% / 3% | -7% / 3% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for ODFL:
- High net margins (18.5%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (23.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.1%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
The case against ODFL:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-4.8%), limiting the upside engine.
- A rich 44.4x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
Valuation risk — at 44.4x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-4.8%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Old Dominion is a large-cap industrials business with shrinking revenue, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 44.4x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (46/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 31 Wall Street analysts covering ODFL recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ODFL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
ODFL — frequently asked questions
Is ODFL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Old Dominion Neutral (46/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ODFL's rating on The Stocks School?
Old Dominion currently scores 46/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ODFL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Old Dominion's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ODFL calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ODFL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ODFL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.