UAL
United Airlines Holdings
$128.18
▼ 0.7%Updated Today 11:30 AM ET
UAL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 52/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 59.2% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$43.27B
P/E
11.07x
Forward P/E (est.)
10.85x
ROE
24.9%
Revenue Growth
4.7%
EPS Growth
2.0%
Profit Margin
6.1%
FCF Yield
13.9%
Debt / Equity
1.42x
ROIC
14.0%
Interest Coverage
7.03x
Current Ratio
0.7x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
2.9%
Rating Score
52/100
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is a large-cap company in the Passenger Airlines industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $43.27B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $59.07B in revenue and $3.35B in net profit.
Our model rates UAL Neutral (52/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
8.2% average over the last 3 years
±15.2 pts around 2.4% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 9 years
14.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what UAL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. UAL trades near $128.18, above its 50-day average ($107.06) and 200-day average ($103.37). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 79 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. UAL's is $5.16 (~4.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month UAL found buyers near $101.77 (support) and sellers near $138.77 (resistance); its 52-week range is $78.33–$138.77. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
24.4%
Revenue moved from $36.56B in 2016 to $59.07B in 2025, a 5.5% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (4.7%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
63.5%
Operating Margin
8.0%
Net Margin
5.7%
ROE
24.9%
United Airlines Holdings keeps about 6.1% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 63.5% gross margin and 8.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 24.9% and return on invested capital about 14.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$11.49B
Net Debt
$3.62B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.77x
Debt / Equity
1.42x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.4x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.0x, with a current ratio of 0.7x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $11.49B of total debt against $7.87B of cash.
Operating CF
$8.43B
Free Cash Flow
$2.56B
FCF Margin
4.3%
In the latest year United Airlines Holdings produced about $8.43B of operating cash flow and $2.56B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 13.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
P/E
11.07x
P/S
0.63x
P/B
2.56x
EV / EBITDA
—
UAL trades at 11.1x trailing earnings (about 10.8x on estimated forward earnings), 0.6x sales, and 2.6x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 2.9% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$140.96
Current price
$128.18
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$2.56B
Growth, years 1–5
4.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where UAL sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How UAL stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), UAL ranks #61 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (11.1x P/E vs. 32x median) with a higher return on equity (24.9% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (4.7% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
11.1x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
24.9%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
4.7%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#61
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $128.18 today · expected CAGR -6% – 3%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $62.02B | $65.12B | $68.38B | $71.80B | $75.39B |
| Net income | $3.72B | $3.91B | $4.10B | $4.31B | $4.52B |
| EPS | $11.02 | $11.57 | $12.15 | $12.76 | $13.40 |
| Share price (low) | $77.17 | $81.02 | $85.07 | $89.33 | $93.79 |
| Share price (high) | $121.26 | $127.32 | $133.69 | $140.37 | $147.39 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -40% / -5% | -20% / -0% | -13% / 1% | -9% / 2% | -6% / 3% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for UAL:
- Strong return on equity (24.9%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~13.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
The case against UAL:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.4x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: United Airlines Holdings is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 11.1x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (52/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering UAL recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
UAL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
UAL — frequently asked questions
Is UAL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates United Airlines Holdings Neutral (52/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is UAL's rating on The Stocks School?
United Airlines Holdings currently scores 52/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does UAL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from United Airlines Holdings's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for UAL calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this UAL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell UAL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.