ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive
$92.83
▼ 0.6%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
ORLY at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 42/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 1.7% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$74.79B
P/E
29.67x
Forward P/E (est.)
42.38x
ROE
423.4%
Revenue Growth
7.9%
EPS Growth
-86.8%
Profit Margin
14.3%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
29.45x
ROIC
89.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.76x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.7%
Rating Score
42/100
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is a large-cap company in the Automotive Retail industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $74.79B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $17.78B in revenue and $2.54B in net profit.
Our model rates ORLY Neutral (42/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
51.3% average over the last 3 years
±0.7 pts around 52.1% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
89.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ORLY's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ORLY trades near $92.83, around its 50-day average ($90.74) and 200-day average ($94.83). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 50 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ORLY's is $2.57 (~2.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month ORLY found buyers near $84.76 (support) and sellers near $93.52 (resistance); its 52-week range is $84.76–$108.72. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.4× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
7.5%
Revenue moved from $8.59B in 2016 to $17.78B in 2025, a 8.4% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 7.9% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
51.6%
Operating Margin
19.5%
Net Margin
14.3%
ROE
423.4%
O’Reilly Automotive keeps about 14.3% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 51.6% gross margin and 19.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 423.4% and return on invested capital about 89.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$4.12B
Net Debt
$3.87B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.12x
Debt / Equity
29.45x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 29.4x, with a current ratio of 0.8x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $4.12B of total debt against $252.63M of cash.
Operating CF
$2.76B
Free Cash Flow
$1.59B
FCF Margin
9.0%
In the latest year O’Reilly Automotive produced about $2.76B of operating cash flow and $1.59B of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
P/E
29.67x
P/S
4.24x
P/B
—
EV / EBITDA
—
ORLY trades at 29.7x trailing earnings (about 42.4x on estimated forward earnings), 4.2x sales. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$41.15
Current price
$92.83
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.59B
Growth, years 1–5
7.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where ORLY sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How ORLY stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (158 S&P 500 companies), ORLY ranks #60 of 158 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (29.7x P/E vs. 25.8x median) with a higher return on equity (423.4% vs. 26.2%) and faster revenue growth (7.9% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
29.7x
median 25.8x
ROE vs sector
423.4%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
7.9%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#60
of 158 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 158 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $92.83 today · expected CAGR -3% – 8%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.20B | $20.74B | $22.40B | $24.19B | $26.13B |
| Net income | $2.69B | $2.90B | $3.14B | $3.39B | $3.66B |
| EPS | $3.34 | $3.60 | $3.89 | $4.20 | $4.54 |
| Share price (low) | $60.07 | $64.87 | $70.06 | $75.67 | $81.72 |
| Share price (high) | $100.11 | $108.12 | $116.77 | $126.11 | $136.20 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -35% / 8% | -16% / 8% | -9% / 8% | -5% / 8% | -3% / 8% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for ORLY:
- Strong return on equity (423.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Consumer Discretionary, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against ORLY:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 29.4x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 29.4x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: O’Reilly Automotive is a large-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 29.7x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (42/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 36 Wall Street analysts covering ORLY recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ORLY's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
ORLY — frequently asked questions
Is ORLY a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates O’Reilly Automotive Neutral (42/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ORLY's rating on The Stocks School?
O’Reilly Automotive currently scores 42/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ORLY's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from O’Reilly Automotive's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ORLY calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ORLY analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ORLY. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.