HLT
Hilton Worldwide
$320.20
▼ 0.6%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
HLT at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 39/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 40.9% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$76.97B
P/E
47.27x
Forward P/E (est.)
45.83x
ROE
171.0%
Revenue Growth
8.7%
EPS Growth
3.1%
Profit Margin
12.6%
FCF Yield
1.6%
Debt / Equity
13.22x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
4.73x
Current Ratio
0.61x
Dividend Yield
0.2%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.2%
Rating Score
39/100
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) is a large-cap company in the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $76.97B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.04B in revenue and $1.46B in net profit.
Our model rates HLT Weak (39/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
21.8% average over the last 3 years
±9.2 pts around 15.8% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what HLT's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. HLT trades near $320.20, around its 50-day average ($330.38) and 200-day average ($299.40). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 45 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. HLT's is $7.86 (~2.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month HLT found buyers near $328.30 (support) and sellers near $358.00 (resistance); its 52-week range is $253.54–$358.00. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
20.1%
Revenue moved from $6.58B in 2016 to $12.04B in 2025, a 7.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 8.7% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
37.8%
Operating Margin
22.4%
Net Margin
12.1%
ROE
171.0%
Hilton Worldwide keeps about 12.6% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 37.8% gross margin and 22.4% operating margin. Return on equity is 171.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$11.00M
Net Debt
-$553.00M
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.21x
Debt / Equity
13.22x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 13.2x, and operating profit covers interest about 4.7x, with a current ratio of 0.6x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $11.00M of total debt against $564.00M of cash.
Operating CF
$2.13B
Free Cash Flow
$2.03B
FCF Margin
16.8%
In the latest year Hilton Worldwide produced about $2.13B of operating cash flow and $2.03B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 1.6% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
0.2%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.60
Total paid (latest FY)
$143.00M
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 7% of free cash flow
10% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 9 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
47.27x
P/S
6.62x
P/B
35.33x
EV / EBITDA
—
HLT trades at 47.3x trailing earnings (about 45.8x on estimated forward earnings), 6.6x sales, and 35.3x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.2% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$199.39
Current price
$320.20
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$2.03B
Growth, years 1–5
8.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where HLT sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How HLT stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (158 S&P 500 companies), HLT ranks #62 of 158 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (47.3x P/E vs. 25.8x median) with a higher return on equity (171.0% vs. 26.2%) and faster revenue growth (8.7% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
47.3x
median 25.8x
ROE vs sector
171.0%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
8.7%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#62
of 158 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 158 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $320.20 today · expected CAGR -4% – 6%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.12B | $14.30B | $15.59B | $16.99B | $18.52B |
| Net income | $1.57B | $1.72B | $1.87B | $2.04B | $2.22B |
| EPS | $6.55 | $7.14 | $7.78 | $8.48 | $9.25 |
| Share price (low) | $183.42 | $199.93 | $217.92 | $237.53 | $258.91 |
| Share price (high) | $307.88 | $335.59 | $365.79 | $398.71 | $434.60 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -43% / -4% | -21% / 2% | -12% / 5% | -7% / 6% | -4% / 6% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for HLT:
- Strong return on equity (171.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Consumer Discretionary, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against HLT:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 13.2x) adds financial risk.
- A rich 47.3x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (39/100).
Valuation risk — at 47.3x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 13.2x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Hilton Worldwide is a large-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 47.3x earnings, which our model scores Weak (39/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 31 Wall Street analysts covering HLT recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+5 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
HLT's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
HLT — frequently asked questions
Is HLT a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Hilton Worldwide Weak (39/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is HLT's rating on The Stocks School?
Hilton Worldwide currently scores 39/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does HLT's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Hilton Worldwide's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for HLT calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this HLT analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell HLT. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.