PHM
PulteGroup
$131.60
▲ 1.6%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
PHM at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 50/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 28.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$25.46B
P/E
12.23x
Forward P/E (est.)
16.77x
ROE
15.9%
Revenue Growth
-5.9%
EPS Growth
-27.0%
Profit Margin
12.1%
FCF Yield
10.2%
Debt / Equity
0.17x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
0.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
2.0%
Rating Score
50/100
PulteGroup (PHM) is a large-cap company in the Homebuilding industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $25.46B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $17.31B in revenue and $2.22B in net profit.
Our model rates PHM Neutral (50/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what PHM's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. PHM trades near $131.60, above its 50-day average ($121.91) and 200-day average ($124.54). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 66 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. PHM's is $4.46 (~3.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month PHM found buyers near $116.31 (support) and sellers near $140.09 (resistance); its 52-week range is $107.07–$144.50. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.6× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
6.0%
Revenue moved from $7.68B in 2016 to $17.31B in 2025, a 9.5% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 5.9% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
25.7%
Operating Margin
15.9%
Net Margin
12.8%
ROE
15.9%
PulteGroup keeps about 12.1% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 25.7% gross margin and 15.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 15.9%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$43.90M
Net Debt
-$1.76B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.17x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.2x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $43.90M of total debt against $1.81B of cash.
Operating CF
$1.87B
Free Cash Flow
$1.75B
FCF Margin
10.1%
In the latest year PulteGroup produced about $1.87B of operating cash flow and $1.75B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 10.2% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
0.8%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.92
Total paid (latest FY)
$176.68M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 10% of free cash flow
8% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
12.23x
P/S
1.37x
P/B
1.86x
EV / EBITDA
—
PHM trades at 12.2x trailing earnings (about 16.8x on estimated forward earnings), 1.4x sales, and 1.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 2.0% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$94.20
Current price
$131.60
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.75B
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where PHM sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How PHM stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (158 S&P 500 companies), PHM ranks #47 of 158 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (12.2x P/E vs. 25.8x median) with a lower return on equity (15.9% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (-5.9% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
12.2x
median 25.8x
ROE vs sector
15.9%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
-5.9%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#47
of 158 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 158 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $131.60 today · expected CAGR -6% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.83B | $18.37B | $18.92B | $19.48B | $20.07B |
| Net income | $2.32B | $2.39B | $2.46B | $2.53B | $2.61B |
| EPS | $11.98 | $12.34 | $12.71 | $13.09 | $13.48 |
| Share price (low) | $83.87 | $86.38 | $88.97 | $91.64 | $94.39 |
| Share price (high) | $143.77 | $148.08 | $152.52 | $157.10 | $161.81 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -36% / 9% | -19% / 6% | -12% / 5% | -9% / 5% | -6% / 4% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for PHM:
- Strong return on equity (15.9%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~10.2%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.2x) lowers risk.
The case against PHM:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-5.9%), limiting the upside engine.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-5.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: PulteGroup is a large-cap consumer discretionary business with shrinking revenue, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 12.2x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (50/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 22 Wall Street analysts covering PHM recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
PHM's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
PHM — frequently asked questions
Is PHM a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates PulteGroup Neutral (50/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is PHM's rating on The Stocks School?
PulteGroup currently scores 50/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does PHM's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from PulteGroup's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for PHM calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this PHM analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell PHM. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.