STLD
Steel Dynamics
$259.21
▼ 0.9%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
STLD at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 57/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 92.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$31.78B
P/E
27.52x
Forward P/E (est.)
22.3x
ROE
15.3%
Revenue Growth
10.4%
EPS Growth
23.4%
Profit Margin
7.2%
FCF Yield
6.6%
Debt / Equity
0.47x
ROIC
9.0%
Interest Coverage
19.3x
Current Ratio
3.13x
Dividend Yield
0.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.3%
Rating Score
57/100
Steel Dynamics (STLD) is a large-cap company in the Steel industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $31.78B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $18.18B in revenue and $1.19B in net profit.
Our model rates STLD Neutral (57/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
16.9% average over the last 3 years
±5.2 pts around 19.1% across 10 years
grew in 5 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 8 of 10 years
9.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what STLD's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. STLD trades near $259.21, above its 50-day average ($245.37) and 200-day average ($188.78). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 18 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. STLD's is $10.24 (~4.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month STLD found buyers near $216.36 (support) and sellers near $288.74 (resistance); its 52-week range is $119.89–$288.74. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.2× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
-0.3%
Revenue moved from $7.61B in 2016 to $18.18B in 2025, a 10.2% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 10.4% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
13.2%
Operating Margin
8.1%
Net Margin
6.5%
ROE
15.3%
Steel Dynamics keeps about 7.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 13.2% gross margin and 8.1% operating margin. Return on equity is 15.3% and return on invested capital about 9.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$4.20B
Net Debt
$3.64B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.47x
Debt / Equity
0.47x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.5x, and operating profit covers interest about 19.3x, with a current ratio of 3.1x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $4.20B of total debt against $556.53M of cash.
Operating CF
$1.45B
Free Cash Flow
$501.51M
FCF Margin
2.8%
In the latest year Steel Dynamics produced about $1.45B of operating cash flow and $501.51M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.6% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.8%
Per share (latest FY)
$2.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$291.18M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 58% of free cash flow
25% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
27.52x
P/S
2.2x
P/B
2.61x
EV / EBITDA
—
STLD trades at 27.5x trailing earnings (about 22.3x on estimated forward earnings), 2.2x sales, and 2.6x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 7.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$85.64
Current price
$259.21
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$501.51M
Growth, years 1–5
10.4%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where STLD sits versus its Materials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How STLD stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Materials sector (78 S&P 500 companies), STLD ranks #27 of 78 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (27.5x P/E vs. 22.7x median) with a lower return on equity (15.3% vs. 16.1%) and faster revenue growth (10.4% vs. 7.9%).
P/E vs sector
27.5x
median 22.7x
ROE vs sector
15.3%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
10.4%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#27
of 78 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 78 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $259.21 today · expected CAGR 2% – 13%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.99B | $21.99B | $24.19B | $26.61B | $29.27B |
| Net income | $1.40B | $1.54B | $1.69B | $1.86B | $2.05B |
| EPS | $11.41 | $12.56 | $13.81 | $15.19 | $16.71 |
| Share price (low) | $194.05 | $213.45 | $234.80 | $258.28 | $284.10 |
| Share price (high) | $319.61 | $351.57 | $386.73 | $425.40 | $467.94 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -25% / 23% | -9% / 16% | -3% / 14% | -0% / 13% | 2% / 13% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for STLD:
- Revenue is growing 10.4% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (15.3%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.6%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.5x) lowers risk.
The case against STLD:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Steel Dynamics is a large-cap materials business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 27.5x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (57/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 22 Wall Street analysts covering STLD recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+4 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
STLD's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
STLD — frequently asked questions
Is STLD a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Steel Dynamics Neutral (57/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is STLD's rating on The Stocks School?
Steel Dynamics currently scores 57/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does STLD's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Steel Dynamics's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for STLD calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this STLD analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell STLD. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.