TDG
TransDigm Group
$1,235.46
▼ 2.1%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
TDG at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 54/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 6.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$75.43B
P/E
33.22x
Forward P/E (est.)
30.41x
ROE
37.1%
Revenue Growth
13.3%
EPS Growth
9.2%
Profit Margin
21.9%
FCF Yield
2.1%
Debt / Equity
2.97x
ROIC
15.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
3.52x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.4%
Rating Score
54/100
TransDigm Group (TDG) is a large-cap company in the Aerospace & Defense industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $75.43B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $8.83B in revenue and $2.07B in net profit.
Our model rates TDG Neutral (54/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
59.1% average over the last 3 years
±2.8 pts around 56.2% across 9 years
grew in 6 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
15.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TDG's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TDG trades near $1,235.46, around its 50-day average ($1,233.16) and 200-day average ($1,284.27). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 70 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TDG's is $35.18 (~2.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month TDG found buyers near $1,203.35 (support) and sellers near $1,361.77 (resistance); its 52-week range is $1,123.61–$1,623.83. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
16.5%
Revenue moved from $3.50B in 2017 to $8.83B in 2025, a 12.2% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 13.3% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
60.1%
Operating Margin
47.2%
Net Margin
23.5%
ROE
37.1%
TransDigm Group keeps about 21.9% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 60.1% gross margin and 47.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 37.1% and return on invested capital about 15.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$31.28B
Net Debt
$27.39B
Net Debt / EBITDA
6.58x
Debt / Equity
2.97x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 3.0x, with a current ratio of 3.5x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $31.28B of total debt against $3.88B of cash.
Operating CF
$2.04B
Free Cash Flow
$1.82B
FCF Margin
20.6%
In the latest year TransDigm Group produced about $2.04B of operating cash flow and $1.82B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 2.1% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
Coverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Per share (latest FY)
$18.50
Total paid (latest FY)
$9.63B
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 530% of free cash flow
464% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 9 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
33.22x
P/S
8.25x
P/B
5.68x
EV / EBITDA
—
TDG trades at 33.2x trailing earnings (about 30.4x on estimated forward earnings), 8.2x sales, and 5.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.4% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$935.52
Current price
$1,235.46
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.82B
Growth, years 1–5
13.3%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where TDG sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How TDG stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), TDG ranks #54 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (33.2x P/E vs. 32x median) with a higher return on equity (37.1% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (13.3% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
33.2x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
37.1%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
13.3%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#54
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $1,235.46 today · expected CAGR -0% – 10%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.98B | $11.28B | $12.74B | $14.40B | $16.27B |
| Net income | $2.30B | $2.59B | $2.93B | $3.31B | $3.74B |
| EPS | $37.59 | $42.48 | $48.00 | $54.25 | $61.30 |
| Share price (low) | $751.89 | $849.64 | $960.09 | $1,084.90 | $1,225.94 |
| Share price (high) | $1,240.62 | $1,401.90 | $1,584.15 | $1,790.09 | $2,022.80 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / 0% | -17% / 7% | -8% / 9% | -3% / 10% | -0% / 10% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for TDG:
- Revenue is growing 13.3% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (21.9%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (37.1%) shows capital is put to work well.
The case against TDG:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 3.0x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Valuation risk — at 33.2x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 3.0x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: TransDigm Group is a large-cap industrials business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 33.2x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (54/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 27 Wall Street analysts covering TDG recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-5 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
TDG's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
TDG — frequently asked questions
Is TDG a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates TransDigm Group Neutral (54/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is TDG's rating on The Stocks School?
TransDigm Group currently scores 54/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does TDG's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from TransDigm Group's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for TDG calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this TDG analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell TDG. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.