VALE
Vale SA
$15.11
▲ 0.8%Updated Today 12:11 PM ET
VALE at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 39/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 47.7% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$65.74B
P/E
21.07x
Forward P/E (est.)
30.09x
ROE
7.7%
Revenue Growth
1.6%
EPS Growth
-56.8%
Profit Margin
7.3%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
0.56x
ROIC
7.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.82x
Dividend Yield
7.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.7%
Rating Score
39/100
Vale SA (VALE) is a large-cap company in the Metals & Mining industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $65.74B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $48.75B in revenue and $5.51B in net profit.
Our model rates VALE Weak (39/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what VALE's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. VALE trades near $15.11, around its 50-day average ($15.99) and 200-day average ($14.47). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 39 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. VALE's is $0.38 (~2.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month VALE found buyers near $14.76 (support) and sellers near $16.36 (resistance); its 52-week range is $9.36–$17.94. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
6.1%
Revenue moved from $33.12B in 2007 to $48.75B in 2012, a 8.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (1.6%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
35.1%
Operating Margin
18.9%
Net Margin
11.3%
ROE
7.7%
Vale SA keeps about 7.3% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 35.1% gross margin and 18.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 7.7% and return on invested capital about 7.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$30.27B
Net Debt
$24.43B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.65x
Debt / Equity
0.56x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.6x, with a current ratio of 1.8x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $30.27B of total debt against $5.83B of cash.
Operating CF
$16.59B
Free Cash Flow
$818.00M
FCF Margin
1.7%
In the latest year Vale SA produced about $16.59B of operating cash flow and $818.00M of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
P/E
21.07x
P/S
1.54x
P/B
1.67x
EV / EBITDA
6.62x
VALE trades at 21.1x trailing earnings (about 30.1x on estimated forward earnings), 1.5x sales, and 1.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 7.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$3.76
Current price
$15.11
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$818.00M
Growth, years 1–5
1.6%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where this stock sits versus what most companies trade at.
Typical ranges are general references (e.g., many stocks trade at ~18–26x earnings), not hard rules. Context only — not investment advice.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $15.11 today · expected CAGR 10% – 22%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.22B | $51.72B | $53.27B | $54.87B | $56.52B |
| Net income | $5.52B | $5.69B | $5.86B | $6.04B | $6.22B |
| EPS | $1.70 | $1.75 | $1.80 | $1.85 | $1.91 |
| Share price (low) | $22.05 | $22.71 | $23.39 | $24.09 | $24.82 |
| Share price (high) | $35.62 | $36.69 | $37.79 | $38.92 | $40.09 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 46% / 136% | 23% / 56% | 16% / 36% | 12% / 27% | 10% / 22% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for VALE:
- Pays a 7.8% dividend on top of any price gains.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Materials, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against VALE:
- Revenue growth is slow (1.6%), limiting the upside engine.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (39/100).
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (1.6%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Vale SA is a large-cap materials business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 21.1x earnings, which our model scores Weak (39/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
VALE — frequently asked questions
Is VALE a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Vale SA Weak (39/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is VALE's rating on The Stocks School?
Vale SA currently scores 39/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does VALE's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Vale SA's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for VALE calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this VALE analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell VALE. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.