ADBE
Adobe Inc.
$268.59
▲ 3.2%Updated Today 11:30 AM ET
ADBE at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Strong · 78/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 48.4% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$87.34B
P/E
14.26x
Forward P/E (est.)
12.75x
ROE
62.4%
Revenue Growth
11.5%
EPS Growth
11.8%
Profit Margin
28.7%
FCF Yield
6.3%
Debt / Equity
0.53x
ROIC
42.0%
Interest Coverage
77.04x
Current Ratio
0.75x
Dividend Yield
0.0%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-2.0%
Rating Score
78/100
Adobe is a case study in AI fear versus reported numbers: revenue still compounds ~11%, gross margins sit at 89%, and free-cash-flow yield exceeds 6% — yet the stock trades at ~12x earnings, a fraction of its historical multiple, because the market worries generative-AI tools will erode Creative Cloud's moat. Either the disruption thesis is right, or this is one of the cheapest high-quality software franchises available.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
88.7% average over the last 3 years
±1.3 pts around 87.3% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
42.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Sideways — price ($268.59) sits between its 50-day ($234.92) and 200-day ($288.68) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 0.1
Trade levels
Entry zone
$255.08 – $268.59
Stop loss
$185.62
Target 1
$265.94
Target 2
$300.13
Target 3
$313.64
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is neutral (51); the MACD histogram is positive (upward momentum). Sideways — price ($268.59) sits between its 50-day ($234.92) and 200-day ($288.68) averages. ATR(14) is $9.01 (~3.4% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $190.12 and resistance near $265.94; the 52-week range is $190.12–$386.88.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 11.5%, net margin near 28.7%, ROE roughly 62.4%; shares trade at 14x earnings. Quality score: 78/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $9.01 (~3.4%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $265.94 or a loss of $190.12.
Bullish scenario
89% gross margins, 62% ROE, and double-digit growth priced at a market-average multiple.
Bearish scenario
Generative tools (and cheaper AI-native rivals) genuinely lower the barrier to 'good enough' creative work.
Invalidation
A daily close below $185.62 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ADBE's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ADBE trades near $268.59, around its 50-day average ($234.92) and 200-day average ($288.68). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 51 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ADBE's is $9.01 (~3.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month ADBE found buyers near $190.12 (support) and sellers near $265.94 (resistance); its 52-week range is $190.12–$386.88. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
10.8%
Revenue grew from $5.85B in 2016 to $23.77B in 2025, a 16.8% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 11.5% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Gross Margin
89.3%
Operating Margin
36.6%
Net Margin
30.0%
ROE
62.4%
Gross margin runs near 89.4% with operating margin around 36.1% and net margin near 28.7%. Return on equity of roughly 62.4% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Total Debt
$4.80B
Net Debt
-$117.00M
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.01x
Debt / Equity
0.53x
Interest-bearing debt is about 5.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.53x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$10.03B
Free Cash Flow
$9.85B
FCF Margin
41.4%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 6.3%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
P/E
14.26x
P/S
3.51x
P/B
14.25x
EV / EBITDA
9.2x
Shares trade at roughly 14x trailing earnings (11x forward), 3.5x sales, and 9x EV/EBITDA. That is a reasonable-to-cheap multiple relative to the broader market. Our internal rating is Strong.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$646.86
Current price
$268.59
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$9.85B
Growth, years 1–5
11.5%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where ADBE sits versus its Information Technology sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How ADBE stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Information Technology sector (230 S&P 500 companies), ADBE ranks #10 of 230 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (14.3x P/E vs. 41x median) with a higher return on equity (62.4% vs. 17.5%) and slower revenue growth (11.5% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
14.3x
median 41x
ROE vs sector
62.4%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
11.5%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#10
of 230 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 230 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $268.59 today · expected CAGR 2% – 14%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.38B | $29.29B | $32.51B | $36.08B | $40.05B |
| Net income | $7.92B | $8.79B | $9.75B | $10.82B | $12.02B |
| EPS | $24.34 | $27.02 | $29.99 | $33.29 | $36.95 |
| Share price (low) | $194.73 | $216.15 | $239.92 | $266.32 | $295.61 |
| Share price (high) | $340.77 | $378.26 | $419.87 | $466.05 | $517.32 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -27% / 27% | -10% / 19% | -4% / 16% | -0% / 15% | 2% / 14% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- 89% gross margins, 62% ROE, and double-digit growth priced at a market-average multiple.
- Firefly and AI assistants are monetizing as upsells inside a 30M+ subscriber base rather than losing to outsiders.
- Aggressive buybacks at depressed prices compound per-share value.
- Generative tools (and cheaper AI-native rivals) genuinely lower the barrier to 'good enough' creative work.
- Growth has decelerated each year, and guidance credibility is rebuilding.
- Acrobat/document workflows face AI substitution too — the moat question spans the whole portfolio.
- AI-native competitors compressing seat growth or pricing.
- Enterprise budget scrutiny on creative software.
- Execution on AI monetization lagging the fear narrative.
Adobe is the market's cleanest 'is AI a threat or a feature?' bet, priced heavily toward threat. The monitorables are net-new ARR and AI-product attach rates. Suited to contrarian quality investors who believe the numbers over the narrative — with position sizing that respects the chance the narrative is right.
Analyst Ratings
What 46 Wall Street analysts covering ADBE recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-7 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
ADBE's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
ADBE — frequently asked questions
Is ADBE a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Adobe Inc. Strong (78/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ADBE's rating on The Stocks School?
Adobe Inc. currently scores 78/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ADBE's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Adobe Inc.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ADBE calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ADBE analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ADBE. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.