CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
$842.69
▼ 1.7%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
CAT at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 41/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 174.0% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$443.84B
P/E
41.48x
Forward P/E (est.)
42.35x
ROE
47.6%
Revenue Growth
11.8%
EPS Growth
-2.1%
Profit Margin
13.3%
FCF Yield
2.3%
Debt / Equity
2.03x
ROIC
29.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.35x
Dividend Yield
0.7%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.9%
Rating Score
41/100
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is a mega-cap company in the Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $443.84B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $67.59B in revenue.
Our model rates CAT Weak (41/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
18.7% average over the last 3 years
±4.7 pts around 13.7% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
29.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what CAT's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. CAT trades near $842.69, around its 50-day average ($913.11) and 200-day average ($696.78). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 57 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. CAT's is $44.61 (~5.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month CAT found buyers near $854.73 (support) and sellers near $1,073.46 (resistance); its 52-week range is $388.09–$1,073.46. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
7.3%
Revenue moved from $38.54B in 2016 to $67.59B in 2025, a 6.4% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 11.8% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
33.8%
Operating Margin
16.5%
Net Margin
13.3%
ROE
47.6%
Caterpillar Inc. keeps about 13.3% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 33.8% gross margin and 16.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 47.6% and return on invested capital about 29.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$30.70B
Net Debt
$26.62B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.39x
Debt / Equity
2.03x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 2.0x, with a current ratio of 1.4x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $30.70B of total debt against $4.07B of cash.
Operating CF
$11.74B
Free Cash Flow
$8.92B
FCF Margin
13.2%
In the latest year Caterpillar Inc. produced about $11.74B of operating cash flow and $8.92B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 2.3% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.7%
Per share (latest FY)
$5.94
Total paid (latest FY)
$2.75B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 31% of free cash flow
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
41.48x
P/S
6.49x
P/B
11.21x
EV / EBITDA
—
CAT trades at 41.5x trailing earnings (about 42.4x on estimated forward earnings), 6.5x sales, and 11.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.9% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$515.41
Current price
$842.69
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$8.92B
Growth, years 1–5
11.8%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where CAT sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How CAT stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), CAT ranks #107 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (41.5x P/E vs. 32x median) with a higher return on equity (47.6% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (11.8% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
41.5x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
47.6%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
11.8%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#107
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $842.69 today · expected CAGR -3% – 7%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $75.70B | $84.78B | $94.96B | $106.35B | $119.11B |
| Net income | $9.84B | $11.02B | $12.34B | $13.83B | $15.48B |
| EPS | $18.68 | $20.93 | $23.44 | $26.25 | $29.40 |
| Share price (low) | $467.11 | $523.17 | $585.95 | $656.26 | $735.01 |
| Share price (high) | $766.06 | $857.99 | $960.95 | $1,076.26 | $1,205.42 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -45% / -9% | -21% / 1% | -11% / 4% | -6% / 6% | -3% / 7% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for CAT:
- Revenue is growing 11.8% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (47.6%) shows capital is put to work well.
The case against CAT:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 2.0x) adds financial risk.
- A rich 41.5x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (41/100).
Valuation risk — at 41.5x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 2.0x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Caterpillar Inc. is a mega-cap industrials business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 41.5x earnings, which our model scores Weak (41/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 34 Wall Street analysts covering CAT recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
CAT's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
CAT — frequently asked questions
Is CAT a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Caterpillar Inc. Weak (41/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is CAT's rating on The Stocks School?
Caterpillar Inc. currently scores 41/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does CAT's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Caterpillar Inc.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for CAT calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this CAT analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell CAT. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.