EXPD
Expeditors International
$179.86
▲ 0.7%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
EXPD at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 50/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 42.7% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$21.92B
P/E
28.16x
Forward P/E (est.)
27.4x
ROE
36.7%
Revenue Growth
1.1%
EPS Growth
2.8%
Profit Margin
7.5%
FCF Yield
3.5%
Debt / Equity
0x
ROIC
36.0%
Interest Coverage
219.28x
Current Ratio
1.79x
Dividend Yield
1.0%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.5%
Rating Score
50/100
Expeditors International (EXPD) is a large-cap company in the Air Freight & Logistics industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $21.92B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $11.07B in revenue and $810.33M in net profit.
Our model rates EXPD Neutral (50/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
9.8% average over the last 3 years
±0.6 pts around 10.2% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
36.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what EXPD's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. EXPD trades near $179.86, above its 50-day average ($157.61) and 200-day average ($146.23). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 53 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. EXPD's is $3.29 (~1.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month EXPD found buyers near $158.96 (support) and sellers near $168.52 (resistance); its 52-week range is $110.48–$168.52. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
-9.5%
Revenue moved from $6.10B in 2016 to $11.07B in 2025, a 6.8% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (1.1%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
33.5%
Operating Margin
9.5%
Net Margin
7.3%
ROE
36.7%
Expeditors International keeps about 7.5% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 33.5% gross margin and 9.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 36.7% and return on invested capital about 36.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, and operating profit covers interest about 219.3x, with a current ratio of 1.8x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns.
Operating CF
$1.01B
Free Cash Flow
$953.40M
FCF Margin
8.6%
In the latest year Expeditors International produced about $1.01B of operating cash flow and $953.40M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 3.5% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
1.0%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.54
Total paid (latest FY)
$207.44M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 22% of free cash flow
26% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
28.16x
P/S
1.94x
P/B
9.3x
EV / EBITDA
—
EXPD trades at 28.2x trailing earnings (about 27.4x on estimated forward earnings), 1.9x sales, and 9.3x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$106.33
Current price
$179.86
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$953.40M
Growth, years 1–5
1.1%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where EXPD sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How EXPD stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), EXPD ranks #70 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (28.2x P/E vs. 32x median) with a higher return on equity (36.7% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (1.1% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
28.2x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
36.7%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
1.1%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#70
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $179.86 today · expected CAGR -7% – 3%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.40B | $11.74B | $12.10B | $12.46B | $12.83B |
| Net income | $798.08M | $822.02M | $846.68M | $872.08M | $898.24M |
| EPS | $6.55 | $6.75 | $6.95 | $7.16 | $7.37 |
| Share price (low) | $111.34 | $114.68 | $118.12 | $121.66 | $125.31 |
| Share price (high) | $183.38 | $188.89 | $194.55 | $200.39 | $206.40 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -38% / 2% | -20% / 2% | -13% / 3% | -9% / 3% | -7% / 3% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for EXPD:
- Strong return on equity (36.7%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
The case against EXPD:
- Revenue growth is slow (1.1%), limiting the upside engine.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (1.1%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Expeditors International is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 28.2x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (50/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 22 Wall Street analysts covering EXPD recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
EXPD's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
EXPD — frequently asked questions
Is EXPD a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Expeditors International Neutral (50/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is EXPD's rating on The Stocks School?
Expeditors International currently scores 50/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does EXPD's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Expeditors International's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for EXPD calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this EXPD analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell EXPD. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.