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UPS

S&P 500
Neutral · 45/100

United Parcel Service

Industrials
Air Freight & Logistics

$107.24

2.3%

Updated Today 7:15 PM ET

Price — Past Year

▲ Up 5.7% over the last 12 months

Price 50-day average 200-day averageSource: Yahoo Finance · refreshed daily
Key Metrics

Market Cap

$93.52B

P/E

16.98x

Forward P/E (est.)

18.83x

ROE

33.0%

Revenue Growth

-2.9%

EPS Growth

-9.8%

Profit Margin

5.9%

FCF Yield

12.6%

Debt / Equity

1.49x

ROIC

16.0%

Interest Coverage

10.02x

Current Ratio

1.21x

Dividend Yield

6.6%

Implied Growth (rev. DCF)

3.7%

Rating Score

45/100

Technical Analysis (Educational)
Research

Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what UPS's chart says today, with each tool explained.

Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. UPS trades near $107.24, above its 50-day average ($104.04) and 200-day average ($99.54). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.

Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 46 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.

MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.

Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. UPS's is $3.22 (~3.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.

Support & resistance. Over the last month UPS found buyers near $97.15 (support) and sellers near $111.22 (resistance); its 52-week range is $82.00–$122.41. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.

Volume. The latest session traded 2.3× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.

Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.

Business Overview
Research

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a large-cap company in the Air Freight & Logistics industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $93.52B.

In its latest reported year it generated about $88.66B in revenue and $5.57B in net profit.

Our model rates UPS Neutral (45/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.

Revenue Growth
Research

4Y CAGR

-2.3%

Revenue moved from $97.29B in 2021 to $88.66B in 2025, a -2.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 2.9% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?

Profitability
Research

Gross Margin

83.1%

Operating Margin

8.9%

Net Margin

6.3%

ROE

33.0%

United Parcel Service keeps about 5.9% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 83.1% gross margin and 8.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 33.0% and return on invested capital about 16.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.

Debt Analysis
Research

Total Debt

$23.59B

Net Debt

$17.78B

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.26x

Debt / Equity

1.49x

Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.5x, and operating profit covers interest about 10.0x, with a current ratio of 1.2x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $23.59B of total debt against $5.80B of cash.

Cash Flow Analysis
Research

Operating CF

$8.45B

Free Cash Flow

$4.76B

FCF Margin

5.4%

In the latest year United Parcel Service produced about $8.45B of operating cash flow and $4.76B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 12.6% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.

Valuation Analysis
Research

P/E

16.98x

P/S

1.05x

P/B

4.94x

EV / EBITDA

9.98x

UPS trades at 17.0x trailing earnings (about 18.8x on estimated forward earnings), 1.1x sales, and 4.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.

Metrics vs. Typical Range

Where this stock sits versus what most companies trade at.

TTM P/E
17.0xCheap
Forward P/E
18.8xFair
P/S ratio
1.1xCheap
Revenue growth
-2.9%Weak
EPS growth
-9.8%Weak
Gross margin
83.1%Strong
Net margin
5.9%Weak
ROE
33.0%Strong

Typical ranges are general references (e.g., many stocks trade at ~18–26x earnings), not hard rules. Context only — not investment advice.

Sector Peer Comparison

How UPS stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.

In the Industrials sector (80 S&P 500 companies), UPS ranks #59 of 80 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (17x P/E vs. 30x median) with a higher return on equity (33.0% vs. 24.7%) and slower revenue growth (-2.9% vs. 5.0%).

P/E vs sector

17x

median 30x

ROE vs sector

33.0%

median 24.7%

Growth vs sector

-2.9%

median 5.0%

Sector rank

#59

of 80 by rating

CompanyP/ERev Gr.Rating
UPSThis stock17x-2.9%Neutral· 45
FDX17.4x4.7%Neutral· 56
CHRW36.4x-6.7%Neutral· 44
EXPD25.3x1.1%Neutral· 50
GD21.8x-16.9%Neutral· 48
CMI36.7x0.1%Weak· 41
JCI25x-3.4%Neutral· 55
WM30.6x10.9%Neutral· 48
Industrials median30x5.0%52/100

Valuation vs. quality map

sector medianFDXCHRWEXPDGDCMIJCIWMUPSP/E — cheaper ←→ pricierROE — more profitable ↑

The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.

Compare side by side

Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 80 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.

5-Year Projection Model

Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.

2030 price target (Base Case)

$86.38$146.85

vs. $107.24 today · expected CAGR -4%6%

Metric20262027202820292030
Revenue$91.32B$94.06B$96.88B$99.79B$102.78B
Net income$5.48B$5.64B$5.81B$5.99B$6.17B
EPS$7.67$7.91$8.14$8.39$8.64
Share price (low)$76.75$79.05$81.42$83.86$86.38
Share price (high)$130.47$134.39$138.42$142.57$146.85
CAGR (low–high)-28% / 22%-14% / 12%-9% / 9%-6% / 7%-4% / 6%

Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.

Bull Case

The case for UPS:

  • Strong return on equity (33.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
  • Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~12.6%) funds buybacks and dividends.
  • Pays a 6.6% dividend on top of any price gains.
Bear Case

The case against UPS:

  • Revenue growth is slow/negative (-2.9%), limiting the upside engine.
  • Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Research

Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.5x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.

Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-2.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.

Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.

Investment Thesis
Research

On balance, the picture is mixed: United Parcel Service is a large-cap industrials business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 17.0x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (45/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.

Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.

Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.