UPS
United Parcel Service
$104.27
▲ 1.0%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
UPS at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 45/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 5.7% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$94.06B
P/E
16.89x
Forward P/E (est.)
18.73x
ROE
33.0%
Revenue Growth
-2.9%
EPS Growth
-9.8%
Profit Margin
5.9%
FCF Yield
12.6%
Debt / Equity
1.49x
ROIC
16.0%
Interest Coverage
10.02x
Current Ratio
1.21x
Dividend Yield
6.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.7%
Rating Score
45/100
United Parcel Service (UPS) is a large-cap company in the Air Freight & Logistics industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $94.06B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $88.66B in revenue and $5.57B in net profit.
Our model rates UPS Neutral (45/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
9.4% average over the last 3 years
±1.6 pts around 10.8% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 10 years
16.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what UPS's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. UPS trades near $104.27, around its 50-day average ($104.74) and 200-day average ($100.60). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 55 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. UPS's is $2.78 (~2.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month UPS found buyers near $102.83 (support) and sellers near $111.22 (resistance); its 52-week range is $82.00–$122.41. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
-2.3%
Revenue moved from $61.61B in 2016 to $88.66B in 2025, a 4.1% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 2.9% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
83.1%
Operating Margin
8.9%
Net Margin
6.3%
ROE
33.0%
United Parcel Service keeps about 5.9% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 83.1% gross margin and 8.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 33.0% and return on invested capital about 16.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$23.59B
Net Debt
$17.78B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.26x
Debt / Equity
1.49x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.5x, and operating profit covers interest about 10.0x, with a current ratio of 1.2x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $23.59B of total debt against $5.80B of cash.
Operating CF
$8.45B
Free Cash Flow
$4.76B
FCF Margin
5.4%
In the latest year United Parcel Service produced about $8.45B of operating cash flow and $4.76B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 12.6% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
Coverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
6.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$6.56
Total paid (latest FY)
$5.40B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 113% of free cash flow
97% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
16.89x
P/S
1.05x
P/B
4.91x
EV / EBITDA
—
UPS trades at 16.9x trailing earnings (about 18.7x on estimated forward earnings), 1.1x sales, and 4.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$77.52
Current price
$104.27
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$4.76B
Growth, years 1–5
-2.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where UPS sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How UPS stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), UPS ranks #98 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (16.9x P/E vs. 32x median) with a higher return on equity (33.0% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (-2.9% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
16.9x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
33.0%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
-2.9%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#98
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $104.27 today · expected CAGR -8% – 2%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $91.32B | $94.06B | $96.88B | $99.79B | $102.78B |
| Net income | $5.48B | $5.64B | $5.81B | $5.99B | $6.17B |
| EPS | $6.07 | $6.26 | $6.44 | $6.64 | $6.84 |
| Share price (low) | $60.74 | $62.56 | $64.44 | $66.37 | $68.36 |
| Share price (high) | $103.26 | $106.35 | $109.54 | $112.83 | $116.22 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -42% / -1% | -23% / 1% | -15% / 2% | -11% / 2% | -8% / 2% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for UPS:
- Strong return on equity (33.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~12.6%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 6.6% dividend on top of any price gains.
The case against UPS:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-2.9%), limiting the upside engine.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.5x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-2.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: United Parcel Service is a large-cap industrials business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 16.9x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (45/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 35 Wall Street analysts covering UPS recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
UPS's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
UPS — frequently asked questions
Is UPS a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates United Parcel Service Neutral (45/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is UPS's rating on The Stocks School?
United Parcel Service currently scores 45/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does UPS's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from United Parcel Service's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for UPS calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this UPS analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell UPS. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.