NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
$19.15
▼ 1.1%Updated Today 11:30 AM ET
NCLH at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 45/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 11.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$9.08B
P/E
16.39x
Forward P/E (est.)
23.02x
ROE
27.0%
Revenue Growth
6.5%
EPS Growth
-28.8%
Profit Margin
5.7%
FCF Yield
7.1%
Debt / Equity
6.61x
ROIC
31.0%
Interest Coverage
2.15x
Current Ratio
0.21x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
45/100
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is a mid-cap company in the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $9.08B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $9.83B in revenue and $423.25M in net profit.
Our model rates NCLH Neutral (45/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
14.1% average over the last 3 years
±141.0 pts around -57.9% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 10 years
31.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NCLH's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NCLH trades near $19.15, around its 50-day average ($18.36) and 200-day average ($20.79). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 55 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NCLH's is $0.97 (~5.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month NCLH found buyers near $17.70 (support) and sellers near $21.95 (resistance); its 52-week range is $14.53–$27.18. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
97.3%
Revenue moved from $4.87B in 2016 to $9.83B in 2025, a 8.1% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 6.5% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
43.0%
Operating Margin
15.9%
Net Margin
4.3%
ROE
27.0%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings keeps about 5.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 43.0% gross margin and 15.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 27.0% and return on invested capital about 31.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$1.55B
Net Debt
$1.37B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.88x
Debt / Equity
6.61x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 6.6x, and operating profit covers interest about 2.1x, with a current ratio of 0.2x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $1.55B of total debt against $185.05M of cash.
Operating CF
$2.09B
Free Cash Flow
-$1.17B
FCF Margin
-11.9%
In the latest year Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings produced about $2.09B of operating cash flow but negative free cash flow as it invested heavily. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 7.1% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
P/E
16.39x
P/S
0.95x
P/B
4.59x
EV / EBITDA
—
NCLH trades at 16.4x trailing earnings (about 23.0x on estimated forward earnings), 0.9x sales, and 4.6x book value. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
Where NCLH sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How NCLH stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (158 S&P 500 companies), NCLH ranks #54 of 158 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (16.4x P/E vs. 25.8x median) with a higher return on equity (27.0% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (6.5% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
16.4x
median 25.8x
ROE vs sector
27.0%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
6.5%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#54
of 158 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 158 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $19.15 today · expected CAGR -9% – -1%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.52B | $11.25B | $12.04B | $12.88B | $13.78B |
| Net income | $420.62M | $450.06M | $481.57M | $515.28M | $551.35M |
| EPS | $0.89 | $0.95 | $1.02 | $1.09 | $1.16 |
| Share price (low) | $8.87 | $9.49 | $10.16 | $10.87 | $11.63 |
| Share price (high) | $14.19 | $15.19 | $16.25 | $17.39 | $18.60 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -54% / -26% | -30% / -11% | -19% / -5% | -13% / -2% | -9% / -1% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for NCLH:
- Strong return on equity (27.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~7.1%) funds buybacks and dividends.
The case against NCLH:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 6.6x) adds financial risk.
- Interest coverage is thin (2.1x), so debt costs bite.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 6.6x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is a mid-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 16.4x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (45/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 33 Wall Street analysts covering NCLH recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-13 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
NCLH's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
NCLH — frequently asked questions
Is NCLH a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Neutral (45/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NCLH's rating on The Stocks School?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings currently scores 45/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NCLH's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NCLH calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NCLH analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NCLH. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.