NSC
Norfolk Southern
$338.55
▼ 1.1%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
NSC at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 45/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 18.6% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$72.48B
P/E
28.31x
Forward P/E (est.)
34.94x
ROE
17.4%
Revenue Growth
0.6%
EPS Growth
-19.0%
Profit Margin
21.9%
FCF Yield
4.7%
Debt / Equity
1.1x
ROIC
13.0%
Interest Coverage
5.4x
Current Ratio
0.91x
Dividend Yield
1.7%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.8%
Rating Score
45/100
Norfolk Southern (NSC) is a large-cap company in the Rail Transportation industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $72.48B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.18B in revenue and $2.87B in net profit.
Our model rates NSC Neutral (45/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
30.9% average over the last 3 years
±4.3 pts around 33.5% across 10 years
grew in 5 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
13.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NSC's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NSC trades near $338.55, above its 50-day average ($312.28) and 200-day average ($297.95). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 63 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NSC's is $6.15 (~1.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month NSC found buyers near $297.45 (support) and sellers near $323.75 (resistance); its 52-week range is $257.49–$326.00. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
2.3%
Revenue moved from $9.89B in 2016 to $12.18B in 2025, a 2.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (0.6%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
49.3%
Operating Margin
35.8%
Net Margin
23.6%
ROE
17.4%
Norfolk Southern keeps about 21.9% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 49.3% gross margin and 35.8% operating margin. Return on equity is 17.4% and return on invested capital about 13.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$10.24B
Net Debt
$8.90B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.04x
Debt / Equity
1.1x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.1x, and operating profit covers interest about 5.4x, with a current ratio of 0.9x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $10.24B of total debt against $1.34B of cash.
Operating CF
$4.36B
Free Cash Flow
$2.16B
FCF Margin
17.7%
In the latest year Norfolk Southern produced about $4.36B of operating cash flow and $2.16B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 4.7% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
1.7%
Per share (latest FY)
$5.40
Total paid (latest FY)
$1.22B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 56% of free cash flow
42% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
28.31x
P/S
5.7x
P/B
4.95x
EV / EBITDA
—
NSC trades at 28.3x trailing earnings (about 34.9x on estimated forward earnings), 5.7x sales, and 4.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.8% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$135.91
Current price
$338.55
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$2.16B
Growth, years 1–5
0.6%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where NSC sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How NSC stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), NSC ranks #96 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (28.3x P/E vs. 32x median) with a lower return on equity (17.4% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (0.6% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
28.3x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
17.4%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
0.6%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#96
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $338.55 today · expected CAGR -4% – 6%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.55B | $12.92B | $13.31B | $13.71B | $14.12B |
| Net income | $3.01B | $3.10B | $3.19B | $3.29B | $3.39B |
| EPS | $14.06 | $14.49 | $14.92 | $15.37 | $15.83 |
| Share price (low) | $239.09 | $246.26 | $253.65 | $261.26 | $269.10 |
| Share price (high) | $393.79 | $405.60 | $417.77 | $430.31 | $443.22 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -29% / 16% | -15% / 9% | -9% / 7% | -6% / 6% | -4% / 6% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for NSC:
- High net margins (21.9%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (17.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~4.7%) funds buybacks and dividends.
The case against NSC:
- Revenue growth is slow (0.6%), limiting the upside engine.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.1x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (0.6%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Norfolk Southern is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 28.3x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (45/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 26 Wall Street analysts covering NSC recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-6 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
NSC's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
NSC — frequently asked questions
Is NSC a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Norfolk Southern Neutral (45/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NSC's rating on The Stocks School?
Norfolk Southern currently scores 45/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NSC's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Norfolk Southern's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NSC calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NSC analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NSC. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.