UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
$294.44
▼ 0.3%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
UNP at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 63/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 15.7% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$167.58B
P/E
23.48x
Forward P/E (est.)
21.45x
ROE
40.4%
Revenue Growth
1.9%
EPS Growth
9.4%
Profit Margin
29.2%
FCF Yield
5.3%
Debt / Equity
1.72x
ROIC
15.0%
Interest Coverage
7.35x
Current Ratio
0.92x
Dividend Yield
2.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.5%
Rating Score
63/100
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is a large-cap company in the Rail Transportation industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $167.58B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $24.51B in revenue and $7.14B in net profit.
Our model rates UNP Favorable (63/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (7 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
39.3% average over the last 3 years
±1.4 pts around 40.0% across 7 years
grew in 4 of the last 6 year-over-year periods
positive in 7 of 7 years
15.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what UNP's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. UNP trades near $294.44, above its 50-day average ($267.05) and 200-day average ($244.41). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 64 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. UNP's is $6.33 (~2.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month UNP found buyers near $255.22 (support) and sellers near $282.80 (resistance); its 52-week range is $210.84–$282.80. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
3.0%
Revenue moved from $21.71B in 2019 to $24.51B in 2025, a 2.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (1.9%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
79.4%
Operating Margin
40.2%
Net Margin
29.1%
ROE
40.4%
Union Pacific Corporation keeps about 29.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 79.4% gross margin and 40.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 40.4% and return on invested capital about 15.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$31.81B
Net Debt
$31.08B
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.16x
Debt / Equity
1.72x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.7x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.3x, with a current ratio of 0.9x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $31.81B of total debt against $735.00M of cash.
Operating CF
$9.29B
Free Cash Flow
$5.50B
FCF Margin
22.4%
In the latest year Union Pacific Corporation produced about $9.29B of operating cash flow and $5.50B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 5.3% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
2.1%
Per share (latest FY)
$5.44
Total paid (latest FY)
$3.24B
History on record
7 years
dividend uses 59% of free cash flow
45% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 6 years in a row
no cuts in the last 7 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
23.48x
P/S
6.28x
P/B
8.18x
EV / EBITDA
—
UNP trades at 23.5x trailing earnings (about 21.5x on estimated forward earnings), 6.3x sales, and 8.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$140.92
Current price
$294.44
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$5.50B
Growth, years 1–5
1.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where UNP sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How UNP stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), UNP ranks #20 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (23.5x P/E vs. 32x median) with a higher return on equity (40.4% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (1.9% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
23.5x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
40.4%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
1.9%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#20
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $294.44 today · expected CAGR -7% – 2%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.25B | $26.00B | $26.78B | $27.59B | $28.41B |
| Net income | $7.32B | $7.54B | $7.77B | $8.00B | $8.24B |
| EPS | $12.86 | $13.25 | $13.65 | $14.06 | $14.48 |
| Share price (low) | $180.09 | $185.49 | $191.06 | $196.79 | $202.69 |
| Share price (high) | $295.86 | $304.74 | $313.88 | $323.30 | $333.00 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / 0% | -21% / 2% | -13% / 2% | -10% / 2% | -7% / 2% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for UNP:
- High net margins (29.2%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (40.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~5.3%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 2.1% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (63/100).
The case against UNP:
- Revenue growth is slow (1.9%), limiting the upside engine.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 1.7x) adds financial risk.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.7x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (1.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Union Pacific Corporation is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 23.5x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (63/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 31 Wall Street analysts covering UNP recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
UNP's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
UNP — frequently asked questions
Is UNP a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Union Pacific Corporation Favorable (63/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is UNP's rating on The Stocks School?
Union Pacific Corporation currently scores 63/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does UNP's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Union Pacific Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for UNP calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this UNP analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell UNP. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.