NTRS
Northern Trust
$184.24
▲ 0.1%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
NTRS at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 42/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 55.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$32.66B
P/E
18.23x
Forward P/E (est.)
20.36x
ROE
14.4%
Revenue Growth
-2.7%
EPS Growth
-10.4%
Profit Margin
22.4%
FCF Yield
4.7%
Debt / Equity
12.29x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
1.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-6.6%
Rating Score
42/100
Northern Trust (NTRS) is a large-cap company in the Asset Management & Custody Banks industry, part of the Financials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $32.66B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $8.09B in revenue and $1.74B in net profit.
Our model rates NTRS Neutral (42/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NTRS's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NTRS trades near $184.24, above its 50-day average ($168.47) and 200-day average ($145.96). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 61 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NTRS's is $3.79 (~2.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month NTRS found buyers near $165.90 (support) and sellers near $178.70 (resistance); its 52-week range is $118.99–$178.70. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.6× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
5.8%
Revenue moved from $4.96B in 2016 to $8.09B in 2025, a 5.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 2.7% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
100.0%
Operating Margin
30.2%
Net Margin
21.5%
ROE
14.4%
Northern Trust keeps about 22.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 100.0% gross margin and 30.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 14.4%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$1.42B
Net Debt
$1.42B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
12.29x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 12.3x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it.
Operating CF
$5.53B
Free Cash Flow
$5.46B
FCF Margin
67.5%
In the latest year Northern Trust produced about $5.53B of operating cash flow and $5.46B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 4.7% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
1.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$3.10
Total paid (latest FY)
$591.60M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 11% of free cash flow
34% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
18.23x
P/S
4x
P/B
2.1x
EV / EBITDA
—
NTRS trades at 18.2x trailing earnings (about 20.4x on estimated forward earnings), 4.0x sales, and 2.1x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -6.6% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$345.62
Current price
$184.24
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$5.46B
Growth, years 1–5
-2.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where NTRS sits versus its Financials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 141 Financials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How NTRS stacks up against its Financials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Financials sector (289 S&P 500 companies), NTRS ranks #127 of 289 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (18.2x P/E vs. 15.8x median) with a higher return on equity (14.4% vs. 13.6%) and slower revenue growth (-2.7% vs. 15.9%).
P/E vs sector
18.2x
median 15.8x
ROE vs sector
14.4%
median 13.6%
Growth vs sector
-2.7%
median 15.9%
Sector rank
#127
of 289 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Financials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 289 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $184.24 today · expected CAGR -8% – 2%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.33B | $8.58B | $8.84B | $9.10B | $9.37B |
| Net income | $1.75B | $1.80B | $1.86B | $1.91B | $1.97B |
| EPS | $9.87 | $10.16 | $10.47 | $10.78 | $11.10 |
| Share price (low) | $108.53 | $111.79 | $115.14 | $118.60 | $122.15 |
| Share price (high) | $177.60 | $182.93 | $188.41 | $194.07 | $199.89 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -41% / -4% | -22% / -0% | -15% / 1% | -10% / 1% | -8% / 2% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for NTRS:
- High net margins (22.4%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~4.7%) funds buybacks and dividends.
The case against NTRS:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-2.7%), limiting the upside engine.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 12.3x) adds financial risk.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 12.3x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-2.7%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Northern Trust is a large-cap financials business with shrinking revenue, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 18.2x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (42/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 21 Wall Street analysts covering NTRS recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-27 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
NTRS's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
NTRS — frequently asked questions
Is NTRS a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Northern Trust Neutral (42/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NTRS's rating on The Stocks School?
Northern Trust currently scores 42/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NTRS's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Northern Trust's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NTRS calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NTRS analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NTRS. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.