ACGL
Arch Capital Group
$98.99
▼ 0.3%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
ACGL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Strong · 77/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 1.0% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$35.71B
P/E
7.02x
Forward P/E (est.)
5.26x
ROE
20.5%
Revenue Growth
7.8%
EPS Growth
33.3%
Profit Margin
25.6%
FCF Yield
8.2%
Debt / Equity
0.11x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-7.0%
Rating Score
77/100
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) is a large-cap company in the Property & Casualty Insurance industry, part of the Financials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $35.71B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $19.93B in revenue and $4.40B in net profit.
Our model rates ACGL Strong (77/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ACGL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ACGL trades near $98.99, above its 50-day average ($93.75) and 200-day average ($93.62). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 82 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ACGL's is $2.11 (~2.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month ACGL found buyers near $88.25 (support) and sellers near $102.25 (resistance); its 52-week range is $82.45–$103.39. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.0× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
21.2%
Revenue moved from $4.46B in 2016 to $19.93B in 2025, a 18.1% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 7.8% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
25.6%
Net Margin
22.1%
ROE
20.5%
Arch Capital Group keeps about 25.6% of each sales dollar as net profit. Return on equity is 20.5%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.11x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.1x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns.
Operating CF
$6.17B
Free Cash Flow
$6.13B
FCF Margin
30.7%
In the latest year Arch Capital Group produced about $6.17B of operating cash flow and $6.13B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 8.2% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Per share (latest FY)
$5.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$1.90B
History on record
2 years
dividend uses 31% of free cash flow
43% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
no cuts in the last 2 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
7.02x
P/S
1.65x
P/B
1.54x
EV / EBITDA
—
ACGL trades at 7.0x trailing earnings (about 5.3x on estimated forward earnings), 1.6x sales, and 1.5x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -7.0% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$373.74
Current price
$98.99
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$6.13B
Growth, years 1–5
7.8%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where ACGL sits versus its Financials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 141 Financials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How ACGL stacks up against its Financials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Financials sector (289 S&P 500 companies), ACGL ranks #15 of 289 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (7x P/E vs. 15.8x median) with a higher return on equity (20.5% vs. 13.6%) and slower revenue growth (7.8% vs. 15.9%).
P/E vs sector
7x
median 15.8x
ROE vs sector
20.5%
median 13.6%
Growth vs sector
7.8%
median 15.9%
Sector rank
#15
of 289 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Financials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 289 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $98.99 today · expected CAGR -2% – 8%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.52B | $23.25B | $25.10B | $27.11B | $29.28B |
| Net income | $4.74B | $5.11B | $5.52B | $5.96B | $6.44B |
| EPS | $13.13 | $14.18 | $15.31 | $16.54 | $17.86 |
| Share price (low) | $65.63 | $70.89 | $76.56 | $82.68 | $89.30 |
| Share price (high) | $105.02 | $113.42 | $122.49 | $132.29 | $142.87 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -34% / 6% | -15% / 7% | -8% / 7% | -4% / 8% | -2% / 8% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for ACGL:
- High net margins (25.6%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (20.5%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~8.2%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.1x) lowers risk.
- Our model's overall read is Strong (77/100).
The case against ACGL:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Arch Capital Group is a large-cap financials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 7.0x earnings, which our model scores Strong (77/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 28 Wall Street analysts covering ACGL recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ACGL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
ACGL — frequently asked questions
Is ACGL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Arch Capital Group Strong (77/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ACGL's rating on The Stocks School?
Arch Capital Group currently scores 77/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ACGL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Arch Capital Group's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ACGL calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ACGL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ACGL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.