NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
$223.18
▲ 1.9%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
NVDA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Strong · 87/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 44.8% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$4.71T
P/E
34.12x
Forward P/E (est.)
24.37x
ROE
111.7%
Revenue Growth
70.7%
EPS Growth
110.3%
Profit Margin
63.0%
FCF Yield
4.0%
Debt / Equity
0.05x
ROIC
51.0%
Interest Coverage
507.34x
Current Ratio
3.44x
Dividend Yield
0.5%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.8%
Rating Score
87/100
NVIDIA sits at the center of the AI buildout, supplying the accelerators, networking, and CUDA software that train and serve large models. Explosive data-center demand has driven revenue and margins to extraordinary levels, with the CUDA ecosystem forming a deep competitive moat.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
72.9% average over the last 3 years
±6.2 pts around 64.9% across 9 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
51.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Uptrend — price ($223.18) is above the 50-day ($209.80) and 200-day ($191.03) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 0.1
Trade levels
Entry zone
$213.67 – $223.18
Stop loss
$186.63
Target 1
$221.60
Target 2
$245.37
Target 3
$254.88
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is soft (40); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Uptrend — price ($223.18) is above the 50-day ($209.80) and 200-day ($191.03) averages. ATR(14) is $6.34 (~2.8% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $189.80 and resistance near $221.60; the 52-week range is $152.97–$236.54.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 70.7%, net margin near 63.0%, ROE roughly 111.7%; shares trade at 34x earnings. Quality score: 87/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $6.34 (~2.8%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $221.60 or a loss of $189.80.
Bullish scenario
The CUDA software ecosystem locks in developers and is hard to replicate.
Bearish scenario
Revenue is highly concentrated in a handful of hyperscaler customers building their own silicon.
Invalidation
A daily close below $186.63 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NVDA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NVDA trades near $223.18, above its 50-day average ($209.80) and 200-day average ($191.03). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 40 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NVDA's is $6.34 (~2.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month NVDA found buyers near $189.80 (support) and sellers near $221.60 (resistance); its 52-week range is $152.97–$236.54. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
68.3%
Revenue grew from $5.01B in 2016 to $215.94B in 2026, a 51.9% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 70.7% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Gross Margin
71.1%
Operating Margin
60.4%
Net Margin
55.6%
ROE
111.7%
Gross margin runs near 74.2% with operating margin around 64.0% and net margin near 63.0%. Return on equity of roughly 111.7% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Total Debt
$8.47B
Net Debt
-$4.77B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.04x
Debt / Equity
0.05x
Interest-bearing debt is about 0.3% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.05x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$102.72B
Free Cash Flow
$96.68B
FCF Margin
44.8%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 4.0%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.5%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.04
Total paid (latest FY)
$974.00M
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 1% of free cash flow
1% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
no cuts in the last 9 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
34.12x
P/S
23.44x
P/B
31x
EV / EBITDA
45x
Shares trade at roughly 34x trailing earnings (34x forward), 23.4x sales, and 45x EV/EBITDA. That is a full but defensible multiple for a quality franchise. Our internal rating is Strong.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$165.43
Current price
$223.18
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$96.68B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where NVDA sits versus its Information Technology sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How NVDA stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Information Technology sector (230 S&P 500 companies), NVDA ranks #3 of 230 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (34.1x P/E vs. 38.9x median) with a higher return on equity (111.7% vs. 17.5%) and faster revenue growth (70.7% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
34.1x
median 38.9x
ROE vs sector
111.7%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
70.7%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#3
of 230 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 230 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $223.18 today · expected CAGR 24% – 38%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $313.11B | $454.01B | $658.31B | $954.56B | $1.38T |
| Net income | $156.56B | $227.00B | $329.16B | $477.28B | $692.05B |
| EPS | $7.41 | $10.75 | $15.58 | $22.59 | $32.76 |
| Share price (low) | $148.21 | $214.91 | $311.61 | $451.84 | $655.17 |
| Share price (high) | $251.96 | $365.34 | $529.74 | $768.13 | $1,113.79 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -34% / 13% | -2% / 28% | 12% / 33% | 19% / 36% | 24% / 38% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- The CUDA software ecosystem locks in developers and is hard to replicate.
- Data-center demand from hyperscalers and enterprises remains supply-constrained.
- ~75% gross margins and rapid product cadence (Blackwell and beyond) sustain leadership.
- Revenue is highly concentrated in a handful of hyperscaler customers building their own silicon.
- AI capex is cyclical; any digestion phase would hit growth hard.
- Extreme expectations are embedded after a historic run.
- Customer concentration and in-house ASIC competition.
- Export controls on advanced chips to China.
- A sharp normalization in AI infrastructure spending.
NVIDIA is the purest AI-infrastructure play with a genuine software moat, best suited to growth investors who can tolerate volatility. The key monitorable is data-center demand durability versus customer in-sourcing.
Analyst Ratings
What 68 Wall Street analysts covering NVDA recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
NVDA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
NVDA — frequently asked questions
Is NVDA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates NVIDIA Corporation Strong (87/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NVDA's rating on The Stocks School?
NVIDIA Corporation currently scores 87/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NVDA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from NVIDIA Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NVDA calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NVDA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NVDA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.