TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
$415.30
▼ 0.7%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
TSM at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Strong · 91/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 94.4% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$1.97T
P/E
29.7x
Forward P/E (est.)
21.21x
ROE
36.9%
Revenue Growth
30.7%
EPS Growth
47.3%
Profit Margin
47.0%
FCF Yield
11.6%
Debt / Equity
0.18x
ROIC
24.0%
Interest Coverage
125.96x
Current Ratio
2.36x
Dividend Yield
0.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.5%
Rating Score
91/100
TSMC manufactures roughly two-thirds of the world's outsourced chips and nearly all of the most advanced ones — every leading-edge AI accelerator is built in its fabs. Its process leadership over Intel and Samsung compounds: the best designers bring the biggest orders, which fund the next node first. Revenue more than doubled in five years to about $90B, at margins (47% net) that almost no manufacturer in history has sustained.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
56.7% average over the last 3 years
±3.8 pts around 51.8% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
24.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Sideways — price ($415.30) sits between its 50-day ($420.88) and 200-day ($344.99) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
High
Risk / reward
1 : 3.1
Trade levels
Entry zone
$405.51 – $415.30
Stop loss
$393.93
Target 1
$461.64
Target 2
$496.40
Target 3
$531.15
Position sizing: Starter position only; risk ≤ 0.5% of capital and respect the wider stop.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is firm (57); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Sideways — price ($415.30) sits between its 50-day ($420.88) and 200-day ($344.99) averages. ATR(14) is $23.17 (~5.6% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $405.51 and resistance near $479.00; the 52-week range is $223.70–$479.00.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 30.7%, net margin near 47.0%, ROE roughly 36.9%; shares trade at 30x earnings. Quality score: 91/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $23.17 (~5.6%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average volume — below average, so conviction is light.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $479.00 or a loss of $405.51.
Bullish scenario
Effectively a monopoly at the leading edge, where AI demand is concentrated — Nvidia, Apple, and AMD have nowhere else to go.
Bearish scenario
The 'Taiwan discount' is real: a cross-strait crisis is a low-probability but severe tail risk the multiple must carry.
Invalidation
A daily close below $393.93 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TSM's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TSM trades near $415.30, around its 50-day average ($420.88) and 200-day average ($344.99). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 57 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TSM's is $23.17 (~5.6% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month TSM found buyers near $405.51 (support) and sellers near $479.00 (resistance); its 52-week range is $223.70–$479.00. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
21.2%
Revenue grew from $26.15B in 2015 to $89.72B in 2024, a 14.7% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 30.7% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Gross Margin
56.1%
Operating Margin
45.7%
Net Margin
40.0%
ROE
36.9%
Gross margin runs near 61.9% with operating margin around 53.3% and net margin near 47.0%. Return on equity of roughly 36.9% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Total Debt
$970.50M
Net Debt
-$63.92B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-1.56x
Debt / Equity
0.18x
Interest-bearing debt is about 2.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.18x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$56.61B
Free Cash Flow
$26.98B
FCF Margin
30.1%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 11.6%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.25
Total paid (latest FY)
$11.25B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 42% of free cash flow
31% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 4 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
29.7x
P/S
16.65x
P/B
6.57x
EV / EBITDA
18x
Shares trade at roughly 30x trailing earnings (21x forward), 16.6x sales, and 18x EV/EBITDA. That is a full but defensible multiple for a quality franchise. Our internal rating is Strong.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$43.08
Current price
$415.30
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$26.98B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where TSM sits versus its Information Technology sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How TSM stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Information Technology sector (230 S&P 500 companies), TSM ranks #1 of 230 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (29.7x P/E vs. 38.9x median) with a higher return on equity (36.9% vs. 17.5%) and faster revenue growth (30.7% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
29.7x
median 38.9x
ROE vs sector
36.9%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
30.7%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#1
of 230 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 230 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $415.30 today · expected CAGR 5% – 16%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $117.54B | $153.97B | $201.71B | $264.24B | $346.15B |
| Net income | $47.02B | $61.59B | $80.68B | $105.69B | $138.46B |
| EPS | $9.93 | $13.01 | $17.05 | $22.33 | $29.26 |
| Share price (low) | $178.81 | $234.24 | $306.85 | $401.98 | $526.59 |
| Share price (high) | $298.01 | $390.40 | $511.42 | $669.96 | $877.65 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -57% / -28% | -25% / -3% | -10% / 7% | -1% / 13% | 5% / 16% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- Effectively a monopoly at the leading edge, where AI demand is concentrated — Nvidia, Apple, and AMD have nowhere else to go.
- A 53% operating margin and 31% revenue growth at this scale show extraordinary pricing power.
- New fabs in Arizona, Japan, and Germany reduce the geographic concentration discount over time.
- The 'Taiwan discount' is real: a cross-strait crisis is a low-probability but severe tail risk the multiple must carry.
- Semiconductors are cyclical; AI capex booms have historically overshot before digesting.
- At ~31x trailing earnings, a slowdown in AI orders would hit both the E and the multiple.
- Geopolitical risk around Taiwan and export-control regimes.
- Cyclical downturns in semiconductor demand.
- Rising costs of overseas fabs pressuring margins.
TSMC is the toll booth of the AI buildout: whichever chip designer wins, the wafers are made here. The key monitorables are leading-edge order share and gross margin as overseas fabs ramp. Suited to long-term investors who accept Taiwan-specific tail risk in exchange for one of the world's strongest business models.
Analyst Ratings
What 43 Wall Street analysts covering TSM recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
TSM's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
TSM — frequently asked questions
Is TSM a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Strong (91/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is TSM's rating on The Stocks School?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. currently scores 91/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does TSM's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for TSM calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this TSM analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell TSM. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.