PAYX
Paychex
$120.11
▼ 0.0%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
PAYX at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 62/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 34.6% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$37.82B
P/E
26.38x
Forward P/E (est.)
27.96x
ROE
40.9%
Revenue Growth
16.4%
EPS Growth
-5.7%
Profit Margin
25.8%
FCF Yield
4.9%
Debt / Equity
1.2x
ROIC
19.0%
Interest Coverage
59.19x
Current Ratio
1.26x
Dividend Yield
4.7%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.3%
Rating Score
62/100
Paychex (PAYX) is a large-cap company in the Human Resource & Employment Services industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $37.82B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $5.57B in revenue.
Our model rates PAYX Favorable (62/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
40.5% average over the last 3 years
±1.8 pts around 38.7% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
19.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what PAYX's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. PAYX trades near $120.11, above its 50-day average ($96.15) and 200-day average ($105.13). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 64 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. PAYX's is $3.55 (~3.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month PAYX found buyers near $93.02 (support) and sellers near $106.51 (resistance); its 52-week range is $85.45–$148.11. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
8.3%
Revenue moved from $2.95B in 2016 to $5.57B in 2025, a 7.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 16.4% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
91.4%
Operating Margin
39.6%
Net Margin
25.8%
ROE
40.9%
Paychex keeps about 25.8% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 91.4% gross margin and 39.6% operating margin. Return on equity is 40.9% and return on invested capital about 19.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$4.95B
Net Debt
$3.21B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.45x
Debt / Equity
1.2x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.2x, and operating profit covers interest about 59.2x, with a current ratio of 1.3x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $4.95B of total debt against $1.74B of cash.
Operating CF
$1.90B
Free Cash Flow
$1.71B
FCF Margin
30.7%
In the latest year Paychex produced about $1.90B of operating cash flow and $1.71B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 4.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
4.7%
Per share (latest FY)
$4.02
Total paid (latest FY)
$1.45B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 85% of free cash flow
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
26.38x
P/S
6.47x
P/B
16.47x
EV / EBITDA
—
PAYX trades at 26.4x trailing earnings (about 28.0x on estimated forward earnings), 6.5x sales, and 16.5x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$163.17
Current price
$120.11
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.71B
Growth, years 1–5
16.4%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where PAYX sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How PAYX stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), PAYX ranks #25 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (26.4x P/E vs. 32x median) with a higher return on equity (40.9% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (16.4% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
26.4x
median 32x
ROE vs sector
40.9%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
16.4%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#25
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $120.11 today · expected CAGR 5% – 16%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.46B | $7.50B | $8.70B | $10.09B | $11.70B |
| Net income | $1.68B | $1.95B | $2.26B | $2.62B | $3.04B |
| EPS | $5.34 | $6.19 | $7.18 | $8.33 | $9.66 |
| Share price (low) | $85.39 | $99.06 | $114.90 | $133.29 | $154.61 |
| Share price (high) | $138.76 | $160.96 | $186.72 | $216.59 | $251.25 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -29% / 16% | -9% / 16% | -1% / 16% | 3% / 16% | 5% / 16% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for PAYX:
- Revenue is growing 16.4% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (25.8%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (40.9%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~4.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 4.7% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (62/100).
The case against PAYX:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.2x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Paychex is a large-cap industrials business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 26.4x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (62/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 24 Wall Street analysts covering PAYX recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+4 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
PAYX's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
PAYX — frequently asked questions
Is PAYX a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Paychex Favorable (62/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is PAYX's rating on The Stocks School?
Paychex currently scores 62/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does PAYX's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Paychex's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for PAYX calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this PAYX analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell PAYX. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.