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ULTA

S&P 500
Strong · 75/100

Ulta Beauty

Consumer Discretionary
Other Specialty Retail

$465.06

2.0%

Updated Today 6:01 PM ET

Price — Past Year

▼ Down 3.7% over the last 12 months

Price 50-day average 200-day averageSource: Yahoo Finance · refreshed daily
Key Metrics

Market Cap

$19.93B

P/E

16.33x

Forward P/E (est.)

15.67x

ROE

44.8%

Revenue Growth

43.0%

EPS Growth

4.2%

Profit Margin

9.4%

FCF Yield

6.4%

Debt / Equity

0.02x

ROIC

36.0%

Interest Coverage

Current Ratio

1.31x

Dividend Yield

Implied Growth (rev. DCF)

3.5%

Rating Score

75/100

Technical Analysis (Educational)
Research

Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ULTA's chart says today, with each tool explained.

Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ULTA trades near $465.06, below its 50-day average ($511.69) and 200-day average ($564.07). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.

Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 23 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.

MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.

Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ULTA's is $15.65 (~3.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.

Support & resistance. Over the last month ULTA found buyers near $448.57 (support) and sellers near $527.00 (resistance); its 52-week range is $448.57–$714.97. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.

Volume. The latest session traded 1.0× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.

Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.

Business Overview
Research

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is a large-cap company in the Other Specialty Retail industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $19.93B.

In its latest reported year it generated about $12.39B in revenue and $1.15B in net profit.

Our model rates ULTA Strong (75/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.

Revenue Growth
Research

4Y CAGR

9.5%

Revenue moved from $8.63B in 2022 to $12.39B in 2026, a 9.5% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 43.0% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.

Profitability
Research

Gross Margin

39.1%

Operating Margin

12.4%

Net Margin

9.3%

ROE

44.8%

Ulta Beauty keeps about 9.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 39.1% gross margin and 12.4% operating margin. Return on equity is 44.8% and return on invested capital about 36.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.

Debt Analysis
Research

Total Debt

$800.00M

Net Debt

$633.70M

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.41x

Debt / Equity

0.02x

Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, with a current ratio of 1.3x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $800.00M of total debt against $166.30M of cash.

Cash Flow Analysis
Research

Operating CF

$1.50B

Free Cash Flow

$1.07B

FCF Margin

8.6%

In the latest year Ulta Beauty produced about $1.50B of operating cash flow and $1.07B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.4% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.

Valuation Analysis
Research

P/E

16.33x

P/S

1.59x

P/B

10.36x

EV / EBITDA

11.19x

ULTA trades at 16.3x trailing earnings (about 15.7x on estimated forward earnings), 1.6x sales, and 10.4x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.

Metrics vs. Typical Range

Where this stock sits versus what most companies trade at.

TTM P/E
16.3xCheap
Forward P/E
15.7xCheap
P/S ratio
1.6xCheap
Revenue growth
43.0%Strong
EPS growth
4.2%Weak
Gross margin
39.1%Weak
Net margin
9.4%Average
ROE
44.8%Strong

Typical ranges are general references (e.g., many stocks trade at ~18–26x earnings), not hard rules. Context only — not investment advice.

Sector Peer Comparison

How ULTA stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector (48 S&P 500 companies), ULTA ranks #2 of 48 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (16.3x P/E vs. 23.7x median) with a higher return on equity (44.8% vs. 39.2%) and faster revenue growth (43.0% vs. 6.2%).

P/E vs sector

16.3x

median 23.7x

ROE vs sector

44.8%

median 39.2%

Growth vs sector

43.0%

median 6.2%

Sector rank

#2

of 48 by rating

CompanyP/ERev Gr.Rating
ULTAThis stock16.3x43.0%Strong· 75
TSCO14.5x4.6%Neutral· 54
LEN12.4x-7.2%Neutral· 42
NVR14.3x-7.7%Neutral· 55
PHM11.8x-5.9%Neutral· 50
DRI22.3x8.5%Neutral· 55
RL26.1x14.6%Favorable· 65
BBY13.9x1.0%Favorable· 64
Consumer Discretionary median23.7x6.2%54/100

Valuation vs. quality map

sector medianTSCOLENNVRPHMDRIRLBBYULTAP/E — cheaper ←→ pricierROE — more profitable ↑

The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.

Compare side by side

Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 48 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.

5-Year Projection Model

Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.

2030 price target (Base Case)

$1,551.43$2,482.29

vs. $465.06 today · expected CAGR 27%40%

Metric20262027202820292030
Revenue$17.72B$25.34B$36.24B$51.82B$74.11B
Net income$1.59B$2.28B$3.26B$4.66B$6.67B
EPS$37.10$53.05$75.87$108.49$155.14
Share price (low)$371.01$530.55$758.68$1,084.92$1,551.43
Share price (high)$593.62$848.88$1,213.89$1,735.87$2,482.29
CAGR (low–high)-20% / 28%7% / 35%18% / 38%24% / 39%27% / 40%

Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.

Bull Case

The case for ULTA:

  • Revenue is growing 43.0% a year, a sign of real demand.
  • Strong return on equity (44.8%) shows capital is put to work well.
  • Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.4%) funds buybacks and dividends.
  • A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
  • Our model's overall read is Strong (75/100).
Bear Case

The case against ULTA:

  • Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Research

Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.

Investment Thesis
Research

On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Ulta Beauty is a large-cap consumer discretionary business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 16.3x earnings, which our model scores Strong (75/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.

Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.

Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.