ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
$76.89
▼ 0.8%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
ADM at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 33/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 39.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$37.01B
P/E
34.14x
Forward P/E (est.)
43x
ROE
4.8%
Revenue Growth
-3.9%
EPS Growth
-20.6%
Profit Margin
1.3%
FCF Yield
11.7%
Debt / Equity
0.37x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.31x
Dividend Yield
2.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-2.1%
Rating Score
33/100
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is a large-cap company in the Agricultural Products & Services industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $37.01B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $80.27B in revenue and $1.08B in net profit.
Our model rates ADM Weak (33/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
7.0% average over the last 3 years
±0.7 pts around 6.7% across 10 years
grew in 4 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 10 years
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ADM's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ADM trades near $76.89, around its 50-day average ($77.80) and 200-day average ($67.43). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 41 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ADM's is $2.04 (~2.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month ADM found buyers near $71.62 (support) and sellers near $84.74 (resistance); its 52-week range is $52.23–$85.37. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
-1.5%
Revenue moved from $62.35B in 2016 to $80.27B in 2025, a 2.8% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 3.9% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
6.3%
Operating Margin
1.0%
Net Margin
1.3%
ROE
4.8%
Archer Daniels Midland keeps about 1.3% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 6.3% gross margin and 1.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 4.8%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$7.61B
Net Debt
$7.02B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.37x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.4x, with a current ratio of 1.3x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $7.61B of total debt against $591.00M of cash.
Operating CF
$5.45B
Free Cash Flow
$4.20B
FCF Margin
5.2%
In the latest year Archer Daniels Midland produced about $5.45B of operating cash flow and $4.20B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 11.7% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
2.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$2.04
Total paid (latest FY)
$987.00M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 23% of free cash flow
92% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
34.14x
P/S
0.47x
P/B
1.2x
EV / EBITDA
—
ADM trades at 34.1x trailing earnings (about 43.0x on estimated forward earnings), 0.5x sales, and 1.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -2.1% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$95.37
Current price
$76.89
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$4.20B
Growth, years 1–5
-3.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where ADM sits versus its Consumer Staples sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How ADM stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Staples sector (74 S&P 500 companies), ADM ranks #41 of 74 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (34.1x P/E vs. 22x median) with a lower return on equity (4.8% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (-3.9% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
34.1x
median 22x
ROE vs sector
4.8%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
-3.9%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#41
of 74 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 74 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $76.89 today · expected CAGR 9% – 21%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $82.68B | $85.16B | $87.71B | $90.34B | $93.05B |
| Net income | $2.48B | $2.55B | $2.63B | $2.71B | $2.79B |
| EPS | $5.15 | $5.31 | $5.47 | $5.63 | $5.80 |
| Share price (low) | $103.06 | $106.15 | $109.34 | $112.62 | $116.00 |
| Share price (high) | $175.20 | $180.46 | $185.87 | $191.45 | $197.19 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 34% / 128% | 17% / 53% | 12% / 34% | 10% / 26% | 9% / 21% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for ADM:
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~11.7%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.4x) lowers risk.
- Pays a 2.6% dividend on top of any price gains.
The case against ADM:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-3.9%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (1.3%) leave little room for error.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (33/100).
Valuation risk — at 34.1x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-3.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (1.3%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Archer Daniels Midland is a large-cap consumer staples business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 34.1x earnings, which our model scores Weak (33/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 19 Wall Street analysts covering ADM recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ADM's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
ADM — frequently asked questions
Is ADM a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Archer Daniels Midland Weak (33/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ADM's rating on The Stocks School?
Archer Daniels Midland currently scores 33/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ADM's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Archer Daniels Midland's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ADM calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ADM analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ADM. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.