CF
CF Industries
$113.96
▼ 2.4%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
CF at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Strong · 87/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 2.6% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$16.98B
P/E
10.02x
Forward P/E (est.)
7.16x
ROE
35.2%
Revenue Growth
20.9%
EPS Growth
46.8%
Profit Margin
23.7%
FCF Yield
16.1%
Debt / Equity
0.66x
ROIC
21.0%
Interest Coverage
14.84x
Current Ratio
3.54x
Dividend Yield
1.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-1.5%
Rating Score
87/100
CF Industries (CF) is a large-cap company in the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $16.98B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $7.08B in revenue.
Our model rates CF Strong (87/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
37.2% average over the last 3 years
±12.0 pts around 30.7% across 9 years
grew in 5 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
21.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what CF's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. CF trades near $113.96, around its 50-day average ($116.00) and 200-day average ($99.85). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 59 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. CF's is $3.60 (~3.2% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month CF found buyers near $100.70 (support) and sellers near $118.60 (resistance); its 52-week range is $75.42–$141.96. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
2.0%
Revenue moved from $4.13B in 2017 to $7.08B in 2025, a 7.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 20.9% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
38.5%
Operating Margin
32.5%
Net Margin
23.7%
ROE
35.2%
CF Industries keeps about 23.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 38.5% gross margin and 32.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 35.2% and return on invested capital about 21.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$3.22B
Net Debt
$2.93B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.27x
Debt / Equity
0.66x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.7x, and operating profit covers interest about 14.8x, with a current ratio of 3.5x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $3.22B of total debt against $287.00M of cash.
Operating CF
$2.75B
Free Cash Flow
$1.80B
FCF Margin
25.4%
In the latest year CF Industries produced about $2.75B of operating cash flow and $1.80B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 16.1% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
Coverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
1.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$2.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$326.00M
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 18% of free cash flow
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 9 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
10.02x
P/S
2.3x
P/B
2.69x
EV / EBITDA
—
CF trades at 10.0x trailing earnings (about 7.2x on estimated forward earnings), 2.3x sales, and 2.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -1.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$485.73
Current price
$113.96
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.80B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where CF sits versus its Materials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How CF stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Materials sector (78 S&P 500 companies), CF ranks #6 of 78 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (10x P/E vs. 22.7x median) with a higher return on equity (35.2% vs. 16.1%) and faster revenue growth (20.9% vs. 7.9%).
P/E vs sector
10x
median 22.7x
ROE vs sector
35.2%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
20.9%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#6
of 78 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 78 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $113.96 today · expected CAGR 9% – 21%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.57B | $10.37B | $12.55B | $15.19B | $18.37B |
| Net income | $2.06B | $2.49B | $3.01B | $3.64B | $4.41B |
| EPS | $13.80 | $16.70 | $20.21 | $24.46 | $29.59 |
| Share price (low) | $82.83 | $100.22 | $121.27 | $146.74 | $177.55 |
| Share price (high) | $138.05 | $167.04 | $202.12 | $244.56 | $295.92 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -27% / 21% | -6% / 21% | 2% / 21% | 7% / 21% | 9% / 21% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for CF:
- Revenue is growing 20.9% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (23.7%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (35.2%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~16.1%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Our model's overall read is Strong (87/100).
The case against CF:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: CF Industries is a large-cap materials business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 10.0x earnings, which our model scores Strong (87/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering CF recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+30 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
CF's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
CF — frequently asked questions
Is CF a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates CF Industries Strong (87/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is CF's rating on The Stocks School?
CF Industries currently scores 87/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does CF's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from CF Industries's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for CF calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this CF analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell CF. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.