HRL
Hormel Foods
$25.30
▲ 0.8%Updated Today 11:30 AM ET
HRL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 39/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 19.9% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$13.76B
P/E
29.75x
Forward P/E (est.)
42.5x
ROE
5.9%
Revenue Growth
2.5%
EPS Growth
-37.7%
Profit Margin
3.8%
FCF Yield
8.6%
Debt / Equity
0.36x
ROIC
6.0%
Interest Coverage
9.79x
Current Ratio
1.94x
Dividend Yield
4.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.9%
Rating Score
39/100
Hormel Foods (HRL) is a large-cap company in the Packaged Foods & Meats industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $13.76B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.11B in revenue and $478.20M in net profit.
Our model rates HRL Weak (39/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
16.4% average over the last 3 years
±2.3 pts around 18.7% across 10 years
grew in 5 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
6.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what HRL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. HRL trades near $25.30, above its 50-day average ($22.61) and 200-day average ($23.26). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 55 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. HRL's is $0.63 (~2.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month HRL found buyers near $22.92 (support) and sellers near $26.60 (resistance); its 52-week range is $19.70–$31.86. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
1.5%
Revenue moved from $9.52B in 2016 to $12.11B in 2025, a 2.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (2.5%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
15.6%
Operating Margin
5.9%
Net Margin
4.0%
ROE
5.9%
Hormel Foods keeps about 3.8% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 15.6% gross margin and 5.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 5.9% and return on invested capital about 6.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$2.86B
Net Debt
$2.03B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.82x
Debt / Equity
0.36x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.4x, and operating profit covers interest about 9.8x, with a current ratio of 1.9x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $2.86B of total debt against $826.75M of cash.
Operating CF
$845.25M
Free Cash Flow
$534.35M
FCF Margin
4.4%
In the latest year Hormel Foods produced about $845.25M of operating cash flow and $534.35M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 8.6% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
4.8%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.16
Total paid (latest FY)
$633.19M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 118% of free cash flow
132% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
29.75x
P/S
1.12x
P/B
1.69x
EV / EBITDA
—
HRL trades at 29.8x trailing earnings (about 42.5x on estimated forward earnings), 1.1x sales, and 1.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.9% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$25.30
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$534.35M
Growth, years 1–5
2.5%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where HRL sits versus its Consumer Staples sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How HRL stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Staples sector (74 S&P 500 companies), HRL ranks #37 of 74 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (29.8x P/E vs. 22.2x median) with a lower return on equity (5.9% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (2.5% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
29.8x
median 22.2x
ROE vs sector
5.9%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
2.5%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#37
of 74 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 74 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $25.30 today · expected CAGR -6% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.47B | $12.84B | $13.23B | $13.63B | $14.03B |
| Net income | $498.77M | $513.74M | $529.15M | $545.02M | $561.37M |
| EPS | $0.92 | $0.94 | $0.97 | $1.00 | $1.03 |
| Share price (low) | $16.51 | $17.01 | $17.52 | $18.04 | $18.58 |
| Share price (high) | $27.52 | $28.34 | $29.19 | $30.07 | $30.97 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -35% / 9% | -18% / 6% | -12% / 5% | -8% / 4% | -6% / 4% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for HRL:
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~8.6%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.4x) lowers risk.
- Pays a 4.8% dividend on top of any price gains.
The case against HRL:
- Revenue growth is slow (2.5%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (3.8%) leave little room for error.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (39/100).
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (2.5%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.8%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Hormel Foods is a large-cap consumer staples business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 29.8x earnings, which our model scores Weak (39/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 15 Wall Street analysts covering HRL recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
HRL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
HRL — frequently asked questions
Is HRL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Hormel Foods Weak (39/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is HRL's rating on The Stocks School?
Hormel Foods currently scores 39/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does HRL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Hormel Foods's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for HRL calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this HRL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell HRL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.