KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
$29.84
▼ 1.7%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
KDP at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 57/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 7.4% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$45.31B
P/E
22x
Forward P/E (est.)
18.07x
ROE
7.0%
Revenue Growth
9.2%
EPS Growth
21.8%
Profit Margin
10.8%
FCF Yield
5.5%
Debt / Equity
0.67x
ROIC
8.0%
Interest Coverage
7.21x
Current Ratio
2.31x
Dividend Yield
2.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.5%
Rating Score
57/100
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is a large-cap company in the Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $45.31B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $16.60B in revenue and $2.08B in net profit.
Our model rates KDP Neutral (57/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
54.8% average over the last 3 years
±2.6 pts around 53.8% across 9 years
grew in 8 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
8.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what KDP's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. KDP trades near $29.84, around its 50-day average ($30.16) and 200-day average ($28.15). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 67 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. KDP's is $0.89 (~3.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month KDP found buyers near $29.83 (support) and sellers near $33.82 (resistance); its 52-week range is $24.88–$35.94. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
7.0%
Revenue moved from $4.27B in 2017 to $16.60B in 2025, a 18.5% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 9.2% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
54.2%
Operating Margin
21.5%
Net Margin
12.5%
ROE
7.0%
Keurig Dr Pepper keeps about 10.8% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 54.2% gross margin and 21.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 7.0% and return on invested capital about 8.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$11.57B
Net Debt
$10.67B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.98x
Debt / Equity
0.67x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.7x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.2x, with a current ratio of 2.3x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $11.57B of total debt against $898.00M of cash.
Operating CF
$1.99B
Free Cash Flow
$1.50B
FCF Margin
9.1%
In the latest year Keurig Dr Pepper produced about $1.99B of operating cash flow and $1.50B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 5.5% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
2.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.92
Total paid (latest FY)
$1.25B
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 83% of free cash flow
60% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 8 years in a row
no cuts in the last 9 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
22x
P/S
2.6x
P/B
1.39x
EV / EBITDA
—
KDP trades at 22.0x trailing earnings (about 18.1x on estimated forward earnings), 2.6x sales, and 1.4x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$25.41
Current price
$29.84
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.50B
Growth, years 1–5
9.2%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where KDP sits versus its Consumer Staples sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How KDP stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Staples sector (74 S&P 500 companies), KDP ranks #12 of 74 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (22x P/E vs. 22x median) with a lower return on equity (7.0% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (9.2% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
22x
median 22x
ROE vs sector
7.0%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
9.2%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#12
of 74 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 74 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $29.84 today · expected CAGR -1% – 10%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.10B | $19.73B | $21.50B | $23.44B | $25.55B |
| Net income | $2.35B | $2.56B | $2.80B | $3.05B | $3.32B |
| EPS | $1.55 | $1.69 | $1.84 | $2.01 | $2.19 |
| Share price (low) | $20.14 | $21.96 | $23.93 | $26.09 | $28.43 |
| Share price (high) | $34.09 | $37.16 | $40.50 | $44.15 | $48.12 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -32% / 14% | -14% / 12% | -7% / 11% | -3% / 10% | -1% / 10% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for KDP:
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~5.5%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 2.9% dividend on top of any price gains.
The case against KDP:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Keurig Dr Pepper is a large-cap consumer staples business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 22.0x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (57/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 23 Wall Street analysts covering KDP recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+6 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
KDP's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
KDP — frequently asked questions
Is KDP a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Keurig Dr Pepper Neutral (57/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is KDP's rating on The Stocks School?
Keurig Dr Pepper currently scores 57/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does KDP's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Keurig Dr Pepper's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for KDP calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this KDP analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell KDP. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.