MUSA
Murphy USA Inc
$563.65
▲ 0.5%Updated Today 12:11 PM ET
MUSA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 48/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 33.6% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$10.36B
P/E
18.71x
Forward P/E (est.)
15.33x
ROE
89.5%
Revenue Growth
-1.3%
EPS Growth
22.1%
Profit Margin
2.8%
FCF Yield
6.0%
Debt / Equity
3.5x
ROIC
42.0%
Interest Coverage
7.29x
Current Ratio
0.83x
Dividend Yield
0.5%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.2%
Rating Score
48/100
Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) is a large-cap company in the Retail industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $10.36B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $19.38B in revenue and $470.60M in net profit.
Our model rates MUSA Neutral (48/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MUSA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MUSA trades near $563.65, above its 50-day average ($556.18) and 200-day average ($449.61). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 30 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MUSA's is $21.06 (~3.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month MUSA found buyers near $516.40 (support) and sellers near $636.05 (resistance); its 52-week range is $345.23–$636.05. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.2× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
2.8%
Revenue moved from $11.59B in 2016 to $19.38B in 2025, a 5.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 1.3% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
12.7%
Operating Margin
3.7%
Net Margin
2.4%
ROE
89.5%
Murphy USA Inc keeps about 2.8% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 12.7% gross margin and 3.7% operating margin. Return on equity is 89.5% and return on invested capital about 42.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$678.23M
Net Debt
$559.63M
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.78x
Debt / Equity
3.5x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 3.5x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.3x, with a current ratio of 0.8x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $678.23M of total debt against $118.60M of cash.
Operating CF
$813.90M
Free Cash Flow
$374.30M
FCF Margin
1.9%
In the latest year Murphy USA Inc produced about $813.90M of operating cash flow and $374.30M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.0% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
P/E
18.71x
P/S
0.53x
P/B
12.12x
EV / EBITDA
10.97x
MUSA trades at 18.7x trailing earnings (about 15.3x on estimated forward earnings), 0.5x sales, and 12.1x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.2% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$257.99
Current price
$563.65
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$374.30M
Growth, years 1–5
-1.3%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where MUSA sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 50 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How MUSA stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (92 S&P 500 companies), MUSA ranks #30 of 92 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (18.7x P/E vs. 25.4x median) with a higher return on equity (89.5% vs. 24.8%) and slower revenue growth (-1.3% vs. 6.2%).
P/E vs sector
18.7x
median 25.4x
ROE vs sector
89.5%
median 24.8%
Growth vs sector
-1.3%
median 6.2%
Sector rank
#30
of 92 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 92 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $563.65 today · expected CAGR -7% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.97B | $20.56B | $21.18B | $21.82B | $22.47B |
| Net income | $598.97M | $616.93M | $635.44M | $654.51M | $674.14M |
| EPS | $32.43 | $33.40 | $34.40 | $35.43 | $36.50 |
| Share price (low) | $356.71 | $367.41 | $378.43 | $389.78 | $401.48 |
| Share price (high) | $616.13 | $634.61 | $653.65 | $673.26 | $693.46 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -37% / 9% | -19% / 6% | -12% / 5% | -9% / 5% | -7% / 4% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for MUSA:
- Strong return on equity (89.5%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.0%) funds buybacks and dividends.
The case against MUSA:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-1.3%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (2.8%) leave little room for error.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 3.5x) adds financial risk.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 3.5x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-1.3%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (2.8%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Murphy USA Inc is a large-cap consumer discretionary business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 18.7x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (48/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
MUSA — frequently asked questions
Is MUSA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Murphy USA Inc Neutral (48/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is MUSA's rating on The Stocks School?
Murphy USA Inc currently scores 48/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does MUSA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Murphy USA Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for MUSA calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this MUSA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MUSA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.