PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
$255.36
▲ 1.0%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
PKG at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 43/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 23.0% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$21.22B
P/E
30.88x
Forward P/E (est.)
35.9x
ROE
16.0%
Revenue Growth
7.9%
EPS Growth
-14.0%
Profit Margin
8.0%
FCF Yield
6.3%
Debt / Equity
0.86x
ROIC
10.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
3.07x
Dividend Yield
2.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.4%
Rating Score
43/100
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is a large-cap company in the Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $21.22B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $8.99B in revenue and $774.10M in net profit.
Our model rates PKG Neutral (43/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
21.4% average over the last 3 years
±1.3 pts around 22.5% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
10.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what PKG's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. PKG trades near $255.36, above its 50-day average ($222.90) and 200-day average ($215.19). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 76 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. PKG's is $5.50 (~2.2% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month PKG found buyers near $214.18 (support) and sellers near $243.50 (resistance); its 52-week range is $189.03–$249.51. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
3.8%
Revenue moved from $5.78B in 2016 to $8.99B in 2025, a 5.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 7.9% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
21.0%
Operating Margin
12.3%
Net Margin
8.6%
ROE
16.0%
Packaging Corporation of America keeps about 8.0% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 21.0% gross margin and 12.3% operating margin. Return on equity is 16.0% and return on invested capital about 10.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$3.99B
Net Debt
$3.60B
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.25x
Debt / Equity
0.86x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.9x, with a current ratio of 3.1x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $3.99B of total debt against $397.10M of cash.
Operating CF
$1.56B
Free Cash Flow
$728.60M
FCF Margin
8.1%
In the latest year Packaging Corporation of America produced about $1.56B of operating cash flow and $728.60M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.3% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
2.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$5.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$449.60M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 62% of free cash flow
58% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 1 year in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
30.88x
P/S
2.29x
P/B
4.49x
EV / EBITDA
—
PKG trades at 30.9x trailing earnings (about 35.9x on estimated forward earnings), 2.3x sales, and 4.5x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.4% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$174.45
Current price
$255.36
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$728.60M
Growth, years 1–5
7.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where PKG sits versus its Materials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How PKG stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Materials sector (78 S&P 500 companies), PKG ranks #40 of 78 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (30.9x P/E vs. 22.7x median) with a lower return on equity (16.0% vs. 16.1%) and slower revenue growth (7.9% vs. 7.9%).
P/E vs sector
30.9x
median 22.7x
ROE vs sector
16.0%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
7.9%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#40
of 78 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 78 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $255.36 today · expected CAGR 1% – 12%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.71B | $10.49B | $11.32B | $12.23B | $13.21B |
| Net income | $873.76M | $943.66M | $1.02B | $1.10B | $1.19B |
| EPS | $10.51 | $11.35 | $12.26 | $13.24 | $14.30 |
| Share price (low) | $199.75 | $215.73 | $232.99 | $251.63 | $271.76 |
| Share price (high) | $325.91 | $351.98 | $380.14 | $410.55 | $443.39 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -22% / 28% | -8% / 17% | -3% / 14% | -0% / 13% | 1% / 12% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for PKG:
- Strong return on equity (16.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.3%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 2.6% dividend on top of any price gains.
The case against PKG:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Valuation risk — at 30.9x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Packaging Corporation of America is a large-cap materials business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 30.9x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (43/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 16 Wall Street analysts covering PKG recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+6 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
PKG's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
PKG — frequently asked questions
Is PKG a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Packaging Corporation of America Neutral (43/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is PKG's rating on The Stocks School?
Packaging Corporation of America currently scores 43/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does PKG's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Packaging Corporation of America's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for PKG calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this PKG analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell PKG. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.