PGR
Progressive Corporation
$214.65
▼ 0.3%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
PGR at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Strong · 72/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 21.3% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$135.69B
P/E
10.79x
Forward P/E (est.)
8.14x
ROE
35.4%
Revenue Growth
13.9%
EPS Growth
32.6%
Profit Margin
12.9%
FCF Yield
2.5%
Debt / Equity
0.23x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
0.2%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-3.3%
Rating Score
72/100
Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a large-cap company in the Property & Casualty Insurance industry, part of the Financials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $135.69B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $87.67B in revenue and $11.31B in net profit.
Our model rates PGR Strong (72/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what PGR's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. PGR trades near $214.65, above its 50-day average ($203.28) and 200-day average ($213.33). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 79 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. PGR's is $6.29 (~2.9% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month PGR found buyers near $194.24 (support) and sellers near $232.30 (resistance); its 52-week range is $189.20–$263.83. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
16.4%
Revenue moved from $23.44B in 2016 to $87.67B in 2025, a 15.8% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 13.9% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
16.6%
Net Margin
12.9%
ROE
35.4%
Progressive Corporation keeps about 12.9% of each sales dollar as net profit. Return on equity is 35.4%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$2.66B
Net Debt
$2.66B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.23x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.2x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns.
Operating CF
$17.55B
Free Cash Flow
$17.20B
FCF Margin
19.6%
In the latest year Progressive Corporation produced about $17.55B of operating cash flow and $17.20B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 2.5% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
0.2%
Per share (latest FY)
$13.90
Total paid (latest FY)
$2.87B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 17% of free cash flow
25% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
10.79x
P/S
1.36x
P/B
4.62x
EV / EBITDA
—
PGR trades at 10.8x trailing earnings (about 8.1x on estimated forward earnings), 1.4x sales, and 4.6x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -3.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$876.47
Current price
$214.65
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$17.20B
Growth, years 1–5
13.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where PGR sits versus its Financials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 141 Financials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How PGR stacks up against its Financials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Financials sector (289 S&P 500 companies), PGR ranks #32 of 289 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (10.8x P/E vs. 15.8x median) with a higher return on equity (35.4% vs. 13.6%) and slower revenue growth (13.9% vs. 15.9%).
P/E vs sector
10.8x
median 15.8x
ROE vs sector
35.4%
median 13.6%
Growth vs sector
13.9%
median 15.9%
Sector rank
#32
of 289 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Financials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 289 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $214.65 today · expected CAGR 3% – 12%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $99.94B | $113.94B | $129.89B | $148.07B | $168.80B |
| Net income | $12.99B | $14.81B | $16.89B | $19.25B | $21.94B |
| EPS | $20.55 | $23.43 | $26.71 | $30.45 | $34.71 |
| Share price (low) | $143.87 | $164.01 | $186.97 | $213.15 | $242.99 |
| Share price (high) | $226.08 | $257.73 | $293.82 | $334.95 | $381.84 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -33% / 5% | -13% / 10% | -4% / 11% | -0% / 12% | 3% / 12% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for PGR:
- Revenue is growing 13.9% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (35.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.2x) lowers risk.
- Our model's overall read is Strong (72/100).
The case against PGR:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Progressive Corporation is a large-cap financials business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 10.8x earnings, which our model scores Strong (72/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 31 Wall Street analysts covering PGR recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-6 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
PGR's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
PGR — frequently asked questions
Is PGR a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Progressive Corporation Strong (72/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is PGR's rating on The Stocks School?
Progressive Corporation currently scores 72/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does PGR's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Progressive Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for PGR calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this PGR analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell PGR. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.