BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
$127.99
▼ 0.1%Updated Aug 19, 11:10 AM ET
BABA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 51/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 10.3% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$230.36B
P/E
19.38x
Forward P/E (est.)
23.57x
ROE
10.2%
Revenue Growth
2.7%
EPS Growth
-17.8%
Profit Margin
10.3%
FCF Yield
9.4%
Debt / Equity
0.25x
ROIC
4.0%
Interest Coverage
5.12x
Current Ratio
1.28x
Dividend Yield
1.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
51/100
Alibaba remains China's commerce backbone with a top-two domestic cloud business and an AI-model effort (Qwen) taken seriously globally — yet it trades near 1.5x sales and ~15x earnings with roughly a quarter of its market cap in cash. Growth is slow (~3%) as PDD and Douyin compete hard and Chinese consumption stays soft; the investment case is valuation and buybacks, not momentum.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
10.4% average over the last 3 years
±7.6 pts around 15.4% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
4.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Sideways — price ($127.99) sits between its 50-day ($122.13) and 200-day ($146.76) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 0.0
Trade levels
Entry zone
$123.31 – $127.99
Stop loss
$90.43
Target 1
$125.23
Target 2
$138.91
Target 3
$143.59
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is oversold (19); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Sideways — price ($127.99) sits between its 50-day ($122.13) and 200-day ($146.76) averages. ATR(14) is $3.12 (~2.4% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $91.99 and resistance near $125.23; the 52-week range is $91.99–$192.67.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 2.7%, net margin near 10.3%, ROE roughly 10.2%; shares trade at 19x earnings. Quality score: 51/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $3.12 (~2.4%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average volume — below average, so conviction is light.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $125.23 or a loss of $91.99.
Bullish scenario
A fortress balance sheet (cash ≈ 25% of market cap) funds large buybacks at depressed prices — free-cash-flow yield near 9%.
Bearish scenario
Core commerce is losing share to PDD and Douyin, and EPS fell 18% — cheap can get cheaper without growth.
Invalidation
A daily close below $90.43 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what BABA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. BABA trades near $127.99, around its 50-day average ($122.13) and 200-day average ($146.76). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 19 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. BABA's is $3.12 (~2.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month BABA found buyers near $91.99 (support) and sellers near $125.23 (resistance); its 52-week range is $91.99–$192.67. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
2.5%
Revenue grew from $22.99B in 2017 to $148.40B in 2026, a 23.0% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 2.7% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
4.9%
Net Margin
10.1%
ROE
10.2%
Gross margin runs near 39.8% with operating margin around 4.9% and net margin near 10.3%. Return on equity of roughly 10.2% indicates moderate capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.25x
Interest-bearing debt is about 9.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.25x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$10.67B
Free Cash Flow
$10.67B
FCF Margin
7.2%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 9.4%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
1.1%
Total paid (latest FY)
$4.72B
History on record
3 years
dividend uses 44% of free cash flow
31% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
no cuts in the last 3 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
19.38x
P/S
1.53x
P/B
2.52x
EV / EBITDA
17.37x
Shares trade at roughly 19x trailing earnings (12x forward), 1.5x sales, and 17x EV/EBITDA. That is a reasonable-to-cheap multiple relative to the broader market. Our internal rating is Neutral.
Where BABA sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How BABA stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (158 S&P 500 companies), BABA ranks #41 of 158 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (19.4x P/E vs. 26x median) with a lower return on equity (10.2% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (2.7% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
19.4x
median 26x
ROE vs sector
10.2%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
2.7%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#41
of 158 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 158 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $127.99 today · expected CAGR -4% – 7%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $152.85B | $157.44B | $162.16B | $167.03B | $172.04B |
| Net income | $15.29B | $15.74B | $16.22B | $16.70B | $17.20B |
| EPS | $8.49 | $8.75 | $9.01 | $9.28 | $9.56 |
| Share price (low) | $93.42 | $96.22 | $99.11 | $102.08 | $105.14 |
| Share price (high) | $161.36 | $166.20 | $171.19 | $176.32 | $181.61 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -27% / 26% | -13% / 14% | -8% / 10% | -5% / 8% | -4% / 7% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- A fortress balance sheet (cash ≈ 25% of market cap) funds large buybacks at depressed prices — free-cash-flow yield near 9%.
- AliCloud plus Qwen give real optionality on Chinese AI adoption.
- Any durable Chinese consumption recovery flows straight through a business priced for none.
- Core commerce is losing share to PDD and Douyin, and EPS fell 18% — cheap can get cheaper without growth.
- Regulatory and delisting risk never fully leaves the China-ADR structure (a VIE, not direct share ownership).
- Slow growth and thin operating margins (4.9%) limit the compounding while you wait.
- Chinese macro weakness and consumption softness.
- US–China tensions affecting ADRs.
- Sustained share loss in domestic e-commerce.
Alibaba is a deep-value, high-uncertainty position: the price already assumes stagnation, and buybacks pay you to wait — but the VIE structure and share-loss trend are real. The monitorables are commerce GMV share and buyback pace. Size it as a value bet within a diversified portfolio, not a core holding.
Analyst Ratings
What 47 Wall Street analysts covering BABA recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
BABA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
BABA — frequently asked questions
Is BABA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Neutral (51/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is BABA's rating on The Stocks School?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. currently scores 51/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does BABA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for BABA calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this BABA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell BABA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.