ERIE
Erie Indemnity
$257.10
▲ 1.2%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
ERIE at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 61/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 36.6% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$12.07B
P/E
21.1x
Forward P/E (est.)
20.97x
ROE
25.0%
Revenue Growth
4.8%
EPS Growth
0.7%
Profit Margin
14.0%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
0x
ROIC
24.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.29x
Dividend Yield
2.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.1%
Rating Score
61/100
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) is a large-cap company in the Insurance Brokers industry, part of the Financials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $12.07B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $4.07B in revenue and $559.34M in net profit.
Our model rates ERIE Favorable (61/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
17.1% average over the last 3 years
±2.1 pts around 15.4% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
24.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ERIE's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ERIE trades near $257.10, around its 50-day average ($224.20) and 200-day average ($268.46). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 74 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ERIE's is $8.28 (~3.2% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month ERIE found buyers near $210.78 (support) and sellers near $259.80 (resistance); its 52-week range is $204.63–$380.67. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
11.5%
Revenue moved from $1.60B in 2016 to $4.07B in 2025, a 10.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (4.8%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
17.9%
Operating Margin
17.6%
Net Margin
13.8%
ROE
25.0%
Erie Indemnity keeps about 14.0% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 17.9% gross margin and 17.6% operating margin. Return on equity is 25.0% and return on invested capital about 24.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, with a current ratio of 1.3x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns.
Operating CF
$686.66M
Free Cash Flow
$570.97M
FCF Margin
14.0%
In the latest year Erie Indemnity produced about $686.66M of operating cash flow and $570.97M of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
2.6%
Total paid (latest FY)
$254.28M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 45% of free cash flow
45% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 4 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
21.1x
P/S
2.6x
P/B
6.66x
EV / EBITDA
—
ERIE trades at 21.1x trailing earnings (about 21.0x on estimated forward earnings), 2.6x sales, and 6.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.1% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$257.10
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$570.97M
Growth, years 1–5
4.8%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where ERIE sits versus its Financials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 141 Financials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How ERIE stacks up against its Financials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Financials sector (289 S&P 500 companies), ERIE ranks #83 of 289 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (21.1x P/E vs. 15.8x median) with a higher return on equity (25.0% vs. 13.6%) and slower revenue growth (4.8% vs. 15.9%).
P/E vs sector
21.1x
median 15.8x
ROE vs sector
25.0%
median 13.6%
Growth vs sector
4.8%
median 15.9%
Sector rank
#83
of 289 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Financials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 289 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $257.10 today · expected CAGR -5% – 5%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.27B | $4.48B | $4.71B | $4.94B | $5.19B |
| Net income | $597.89M | $627.78M | $659.17M | $692.13M | $726.74M |
| EPS | $12.73 | $13.37 | $14.04 | $14.74 | $15.48 |
| Share price (low) | $165.51 | $173.79 | $182.48 | $191.60 | $201.18 |
| Share price (high) | $267.37 | $280.74 | $294.77 | $309.51 | $324.99 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -36% / 4% | -18% / 4% | -11% / 5% | -7% / 5% | -5% / 5% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for ERIE:
- Strong return on equity (25.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
- Pays a 2.6% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (61/100).
The case against ERIE:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Erie Indemnity is a large-cap financials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 21.1x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (61/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 8 Wall Street analysts covering ERIE recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ERIE's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
ERIE — frequently asked questions
Is ERIE a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Erie Indemnity Favorable (61/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ERIE's rating on The Stocks School?
Erie Indemnity currently scores 61/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ERIE's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Erie Indemnity's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ERIE calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ERIE analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ERIE. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.