TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
$329.81
▲ 3.2%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
TSLA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 24/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 24.4% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$1.48T
P/E
110x
Forward P/E (est.)
157.14x
ROE
4.8%
Revenue Growth
2.3%
EPS Growth
-39.1%
Profit Margin
4.0%
FCF Yield
1.1%
Debt / Equity
0.1x
ROIC
4.0%
Interest Coverage
27.92x
Current Ratio
2.04x
Dividend Yield
0.0%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
8.5%
Rating Score
24/100
Tesla is the leading pure-play EV maker, with growing energy-storage and an ambitious autonomy/robotics roadmap. Auto margins have compressed amid price cuts and competition, so the bull case increasingly rests on Full Self-Driving, robotaxi, and Optimus rather than today's car economics.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
18.0% average over the last 3 years
±3.1 pts around 20.3% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 7 of 10 years
4.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Downtrend — price ($329.81) is below the 50-day ($406.42) and 200-day ($418.61) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
High
Risk / reward
1 : 1.9
Trade levels
Entry zone
$368.60 – $329.81
Stop loss
$359.08
Target 1
$367.91
Target 2
$396.49
Target 3
$425.06
Position sizing: Starter position only; risk ≤ 0.5% of capital and respect the wider stop.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is neutral (48); the MACD histogram is positive (upward momentum). Downtrend — price ($329.81) is below the 50-day ($406.42) and 200-day ($418.61) averages. ATR(14) is $19.05 (~5.8% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $368.60 and resistance near $432.86; the 52-week range is $288.77–$498.83.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 2.3%, net margin near 4.0%, ROE roughly 4.8%; shares trade at 110x earnings. Quality score: 24/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $19.05 (~5.8%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 1.5× the 20-day average volume — above average, confirming participation.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $432.86 or a loss of $368.60.
Bullish scenario
Optionality in autonomy (FSD/robotaxi) and Optimus could open enormous new markets.
Bearish scenario
Core auto margins have fallen sharply amid price cuts and EV competition.
Invalidation
A daily close below $359.08 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TSLA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TSLA trades near $329.81, below its 50-day average ($406.42) and 200-day average ($418.61). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 48 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TSLA's is $19.05 (~5.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month TSLA found buyers near $368.60 (support) and sellers near $432.86 (resistance); its 52-week range is $288.77–$498.83. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.5× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
15.2%
Revenue grew from $7.00B in 2016 to $94.83B in 2025, a 33.6% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 2.3% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Gross Margin
18.0%
Operating Margin
4.6%
Net Margin
4.0%
ROE
4.8%
Gross margin runs near 19.1% with operating margin around 5.0% and net margin near 4.0%. Return on equity of roughly 4.8% indicates moderate capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Total Debt
$7.64B
Net Debt
-$8.96B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-2.06x
Debt / Equity
0.1x
Interest-bearing debt is about 1.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.10x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$14.75B
Free Cash Flow
$6.22B
FCF Margin
6.6%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 1.1%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
P/E
110x
P/S
16.28x
P/B
14.84x
EV / EBITDA
75x
Shares trade at roughly 110x trailing earnings (90x forward), 16.3x sales, and 75x EV/EBITDA. That is a premium multiple that prices in continued high growth — execution risk is elevated. Our internal rating is Weak.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$25.75
Current price
$329.81
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$6.22B
Growth, years 1–5
2.3%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where TSLA sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How TSLA stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (158 S&P 500 companies), TSLA ranks #79 of 158 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (110x P/E vs. 25.8x median) with a lower return on equity (4.8% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (2.3% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
110x
median 25.8x
ROE vs sector
4.8%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
2.3%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#79
of 158 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 158 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $329.81 today · expected CAGR -28% – -20%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $97.67B | $100.60B | $103.62B | $106.73B | $109.93B |
| Net income | $3.91B | $4.02B | $4.14B | $4.27B | $4.40B |
| EPS | $0.87 | $0.90 | $0.93 | $0.95 | $0.98 |
| Share price (low) | $57.55 | $59.28 | $61.06 | $62.89 | $64.77 |
| Share price (high) | $95.92 | $98.80 | $101.76 | $104.81 | $107.96 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -83% / -71% | -58% / -45% | -43% / -32% | -34% / -25% | -28% / -20% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- Optionality in autonomy (FSD/robotaxi) and Optimus could open enormous new markets.
- Energy storage is scaling rapidly at improving margins.
- Manufacturing scale and software/data advantages in EVs.
- Core auto margins have fallen sharply amid price cuts and EV competition.
- The valuation prices in autonomy success that remains unproven.
- Demand growth has stalled in key markets.
- Execution and regulatory risk on autonomy timelines.
- Intensifying global EV competition and price wars.
- Key-person and governance concentration.
Tesla is a high-volatility bet on autonomy and energy rather than current auto fundamentals, and the valuation already assumes meaningful success in both; suited only to risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Ratings
What 61 Wall Street analysts covering TSLA recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
TSLA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
TSLA — frequently asked questions
Is TSLA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Tesla, Inc. Weak (24/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is TSLA's rating on The Stocks School?
Tesla, Inc. currently scores 24/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does TSLA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Tesla, Inc.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for TSLA calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this TSLA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell TSLA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.