COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
$947.09
▼ 0.2%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
COST at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 47/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 2.4% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$422.05B
P/E
47.79x
Forward P/E (est.)
42.37x
ROE
28.3%
Revenue Growth
9.2%
EPS Growth
12.8%
Profit Margin
3.0%
FCF Yield
1.9%
Debt / Equity
0.25x
ROIC
20.0%
Interest Coverage
67.42x
Current Ratio
1.07x
Dividend Yield
0.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.0%
Rating Score
47/100
Costco's membership model turns razor-thin retail margins into a remarkably durable franchise: members renew at ~90% and fees drop almost entirely to profit. Consistent traffic, pricing power with suppliers, and steady warehouse expansion make it a defensive compounder.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
3.6% average over the last 3 years
±0.2 pts around 3.3% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 8 of 8 years
20.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Downtrend — price ($947.09) is below the 50-day ($992.32) and 200-day ($957.22) averages.
Setup type
Downtrend — avoid or fade rallies
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Low
Risk / reward
1 : 1.0
Trade levels
Entry zone
$947.09 – $970.23
Stop loss
$1,007.05
Target 1
$908.53
Target 2
$844.06
Target 3
$831.41
Position sizing: Standard size; risk ≤ 1.5% of capital.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is soft (42); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Downtrend — price ($947.09) is below the 50-day ($992.32) and 200-day ($957.22) averages. ATR(14) is $19.28 (~2.0% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $920.55 and resistance near $997.41; the 52-week range is $844.06–$1,096.50.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 9.2%, net margin near 3.0%, ROE roughly 28.3%; shares trade at 48x earnings. Quality score: 47/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $19.28 (~2.0%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a reclaim of $997.41 or a loss of $920.55.
Bullish scenario
~90% membership renewal creates a predictable, high-margin fee annuity.
Bearish scenario
The stock trades at a premium ~50x multiple for mid-single-digit growth.
Invalidation
A daily close above $1,007.05 invalidates this bearish read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what COST's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. COST trades near $947.09, below its 50-day average ($992.32) and 200-day average ($957.22). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 42 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. COST's is $19.28 (~2.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month COST found buyers near $920.55 (support) and sellers near $997.41 (resistance); its 52-week range is $844.06–$1,096.50. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
8.9%
Revenue grew from $118.72B in 2016 to $275.24B in 2025, a 9.8% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 9.2% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
3.8%
Net Margin
2.9%
ROE
28.3%
Gross margin runs near 12.9% with operating margin around 3.8% and net margin near 3.0%. Return on equity of roughly 28.3% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Total Debt
$6.62B
Net Debt
-$12.33B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-1.19x
Debt / Equity
0.25x
Interest-bearing debt is about 2.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.25x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$13.34B
Free Cash Flow
$7.84B
FCF Margin
2.8%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 1.9%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
0.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$4.92
Total paid (latest FY)
$2.18B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 28% of free cash flow
27% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
47.79x
P/S
1.6x
P/B
13.77x
EV / EBITDA
33x
Shares trade at roughly 48x trailing earnings (48x forward), 1.6x sales, and 33x EV/EBITDA. That is a premium multiple that prices in continued high growth — execution risk is elevated. Our internal rating is Neutral.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$406.92
Current price
$947.09
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$7.84B
Growth, years 1–5
9.2%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where COST sits versus its Consumer Staples sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How COST stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Staples sector (74 S&P 500 companies), COST ranks #26 of 74 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (47.8x P/E vs. 22x median) with a higher return on equity (28.3% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (9.2% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
47.8x
median 22x
ROE vs sector
28.3%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
9.2%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#26
of 74 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 74 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $947.09 today · expected CAGR -3% – 8%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $300.01B | $327.01B | $356.44B | $388.52B | $423.48B |
| Net income | $9.00B | $9.81B | $10.69B | $11.66B | $12.70B |
| EPS | $20.20 | $22.01 | $24.00 | $26.16 | $28.51 |
| Share price (low) | $585.71 | $638.42 | $695.88 | $758.51 | $826.78 |
| Share price (high) | $969.45 | $1,056.70 | $1,151.80 | $1,255.46 | $1,368.46 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -38% / 2% | -18% / 6% | -10% / 7% | -5% / 7% | -3% / 8% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- ~90% membership renewal creates a predictable, high-margin fee annuity.
- Scale and treasure-hunt merchandising drive industry-leading loyalty.
- Long runway for international and warehouse expansion.
- The stock trades at a premium ~50x multiple for mid-single-digit growth.
- Retail margins are structurally thin and sensitive to mix.
- Membership-fee increases are infrequent and already anticipated.
- Premium valuation compression.
- Consumer-spending softness.
- Wage and freight cost inflation.
Costco is a defensive, high-quality compounder where membership economics matter more than retail margin. Suited to conservative long-term investors, though the entry valuation is demanding.
Analyst Ratings
What 46 Wall Street analysts covering COST recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
COST's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
COST — frequently asked questions
Is COST a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Costco Wholesale Corporation Neutral (47/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is COST's rating on The Stocks School?
Costco Wholesale Corporation currently scores 47/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does COST's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Costco Wholesale Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for COST calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this COST analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell COST. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.