DLTR
Dollar Tree
$129.55
▼ 0.1%Updated Today 11:30 AM ET
DLTR at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 69/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 14.5% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$23.84B
P/E
19.43x
Forward P/E (est.)
20.41x
ROE
35.9%
Revenue Growth
51.3%
EPS Growth
-4.8%
Profit Margin
6.5%
FCF Yield
8.2%
Debt / Equity
0.65x
ROIC
22.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.16x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.4%
Rating Score
69/100
Dollar Tree (DLTR) is a large-cap company in the Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $23.84B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $19.40B in revenue and $1.28B in net profit.
Our model rates DLTR Favorable (69/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
36.0% average over the last 3 years
±3.0 pts around 32.8% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
22.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what DLTR's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. DLTR trades near $129.55, above its 50-day average ($104.54) and 200-day average ($110.25). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 63 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. DLTR's is $4.82 (~3.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month DLTR found buyers near $105.22 (support) and sellers near $125.49 (resistance); its 52-week range is $84.71–$142.40. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
-7.3%
Revenue moved from $20.72B in 2017 to $19.40B in 2026, a -0.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 51.3% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
36.4%
Operating Margin
8.5%
Net Margin
6.6%
ROE
35.9%
Dollar Tree keeps about 6.5% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 36.4% gross margin and 8.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 35.9% and return on invested capital about 22.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
$2.43B
Net Debt
$1.42B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.86x
Debt / Equity
0.65x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.6x, with a current ratio of 1.2x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $2.43B of total debt against $1.01B of cash.
Operating CF
$2.19B
Free Cash Flow
$1.06B
FCF Margin
5.4%
In the latest year Dollar Tree produced about $2.19B of operating cash flow and $1.06B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 8.2% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
P/E
19.43x
P/S
1.11x
P/B
7.21x
EV / EBITDA
—
DLTR trades at 19.4x trailing earnings (about 20.4x on estimated forward earnings), 1.1x sales, and 7.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.4% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$227.70
Current price
$129.55
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.06B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where DLTR sits versus its Consumer Staples sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How DLTR stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Staples sector (74 S&P 500 companies), DLTR ranks #2 of 74 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (19.4x P/E vs. 22.2x median) with a higher return on equity (35.9% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (51.3% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
19.4x
median 22.2x
ROE vs sector
35.9%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
51.3%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#2
of 74 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 74 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $129.55 today · expected CAGR 32% – 47%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.12B | $40.78B | $59.13B | $85.74B | $124.32B |
| Net income | $1.97B | $2.85B | $4.14B | $6.00B | $8.70B |
| EPS | $10.70 | $15.51 | $22.49 | $32.62 | $47.29 |
| Share price (low) | $117.68 | $170.64 | $247.43 | $358.77 | $520.21 |
| Share price (high) | $203.27 | $294.74 | $427.37 | $619.69 | $898.55 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -9% / 57% | 15% / 51% | 24% / 49% | 29% / 48% | 32% / 47% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for DLTR:
- Revenue is growing 51.3% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (35.9%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~8.2%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (69/100).
The case against DLTR:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Dollar Tree is a large-cap consumer staples business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 19.4x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (69/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 35 Wall Street analysts covering DLTR recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
DLTR's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
DLTR — frequently asked questions
Is DLTR a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Dollar Tree Favorable (69/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is DLTR's rating on The Stocks School?
Dollar Tree currently scores 69/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does DLTR's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Dollar Tree's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for DLTR calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this DLTR analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell DLTR. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.