TGT
Target Corporation
$147.06
▼ 0.0%Updated Aug 7, 11:30 AM ET
TGT at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 45/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 37.4% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$59.14B
P/E
19.36x
Forward P/E (est.)
23.24x
ROE
21.7%
Revenue Growth
0.5%
EPS Growth
-16.7%
Profit Margin
3.2%
FCF Yield
10.4%
Debt / Equity
1.03x
ROIC
13.0%
Interest Coverage
10.19x
Current Ratio
0.93x
Dividend Yield
3.5%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.0%
Rating Score
45/100
Target Corporation (TGT) is a large-cap company in the Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $59.14B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $104.78B in revenue and $3.71B in net profit.
Our model rates TGT Neutral (45/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
5.1% average over the last 3 years
±1.3 pts around 5.9% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 10 years
13.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TGT's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TGT trades near $147.06, above its 50-day average ($128.23) and 200-day average ($109.43). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 47 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TGT's is $4.47 (~3.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month TGT found buyers near $120.77 (support) and sellers near $142.82 (resistance); its 52-week range is $83.44–$142.82. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
-0.3%
Revenue moved from $70.27B in 2017 to $104.78B in 2026, a 4.5% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (0.5%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
28.1%
Operating Margin
4.9%
Net Margin
3.5%
ROE
21.7%
Target Corporation keeps about 3.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 28.1% gross margin and 4.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 21.7% and return on invested capital about 13.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$14.40B
Net Debt
$11.72B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.29x
Debt / Equity
1.03x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.0x, and operating profit covers interest about 10.2x, with a current ratio of 0.9x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $14.40B of total debt against $2.68B of cash.
Operating CF
$6.56B
Free Cash Flow
$2.83B
FCF Margin
2.7%
In the latest year Target Corporation produced about $6.56B of operating cash flow and $2.83B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 10.4% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
3.5%
Per share (latest FY)
$4.54
Total paid (latest FY)
$2.05B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 72% of free cash flow
55% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 6 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
19.36x
P/S
0.58x
P/B
3.38x
EV / EBITDA
—
TGT trades at 19.4x trailing earnings (about 23.2x on estimated forward earnings), 0.6x sales, and 3.4x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.0% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$87.68
Current price
$147.06
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$2.83B
Growth, years 1–5
0.5%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where TGT sits versus its Consumer Staples sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How TGT stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Staples sector (74 S&P 500 companies), TGT ranks #28 of 74 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (19.4x P/E vs. 22x median) with a higher return on equity (21.7% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (0.5% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
19.4x
median 22x
ROE vs sector
21.7%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
0.5%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#28
of 74 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 74 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $147.06 today · expected CAGR -2% – 9%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $107.92B | $111.16B | $114.50B | $117.93B | $121.47B |
| Net income | $4.32B | $4.45B | $4.58B | $4.72B | $4.86B |
| EPS | $10.73 | $11.06 | $11.39 | $11.73 | $12.08 |
| Share price (low) | $118.08 | $121.62 | $125.27 | $129.03 | $132.90 |
| Share price (high) | $203.96 | $210.08 | $216.38 | $222.87 | $229.56 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -20% / 39% | -9% / 20% | -5% / 14% | -3% / 11% | -2% / 9% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for TGT:
- Strong return on equity (21.7%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~10.4%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 3.5% dividend on top of any price gains.
The case against TGT:
- Revenue growth is slow (0.5%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (3.2%) leave little room for error.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.0x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (0.5%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.2%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Target Corporation is a large-cap consumer staples business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 19.4x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (45/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 44 Wall Street analysts covering TGT recommend (August 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
TGT's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
TGT — frequently asked questions
Is TGT a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Target Corporation Neutral (45/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is TGT's rating on The Stocks School?
Target Corporation currently scores 45/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does TGT's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Target Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for TGT calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this TGT analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell TGT. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.